Comments on: The All-important Numbers for NY CD-1

By: jtmarlinnyc

jtmarlinnyc — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:49:11 +0000

This is good.

Sent from my iPhone

By: KathrynLevy

KathrynLevy — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:49:11 +0000

I have a lot of problems with extrapolating what you and Bishop do from those numbers. 2014 and 2016 were exceptionally bad years for Democrats around the country. And in 2014, centrist Democrats urged the Obama Administration not to antagonize voters by releasing a comprehensive immigration plan before the election. So the Democrats cowered and were soundly defeated across the country. Look at the stunningly low turnout among Democrats for that year on your chart. In 2016, a change election year, the Democrats nominated Clinton, a candidate who was closely identified with the Establishment. She was defeated, with the traditionally Democratic Rust Belt turning against the Democrats, markedly lower African-American turnout, 29% of Latinos voting for Trump, and significant numbers of former Obama voters voting for Trump. And in this CD we nominated a congressional candidate whom I was told, quite confidently by many in the Democratic establishment, would appeal to Republican voters. Instead she seemed to stand for nothing and was soundly defeated. My interpretation is not that the district is turning red but that the Democrat strategy in the past two election cycles has been a disaster. And I feel we are being asked to repeat it. In particular, beware of any candidate who will once again seem to be trying to be all things to all people, who won’t galvanize voters, and who will depress the Latino and African-American vote.

By: maidstonejewelry

maidstonejewelry — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:49:11 +0000

My intent is simply to present the numbers. You can interpret them any way you want. Interpreting why certain people lost, because they “seemed to stand for nothing” is pretty subjective in my book. The numbers in column 5 represent a pretty dramatic shift over 5 election cycles (10 years).

By: Kathryn Levy

Kathryn Levy — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:49:11 +0000

The same period in which the Democratic Party relied on two things to win votes: 1) reaction to Republican extremism; and 2) Barack Obama’s name on the ballot. The same period during which the Democratic Party lost over 1,000 legislative seats, putting them in the worst position since the 1920s. The Democrats, in terms of both the substantive problems this country urgently needs to address and in terms of politics, needs to actively stand FOR something. Obama’s name won’t magically appear on the ballot again, and over and over saying, effectively, “We’re a better choice than Republicans, but we’re not going to do anything dramatically different to help you,” has proven a losing strategy. But we’re asked once again to repeat it. And by the way, Tim Bishop, who offers such sage electoral advice, is the person who lost the seat to Zeldin. Perhaps we could start to think and act differently?

By: jgavron

jgavron — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:49:11 +0000

David, Thanks so much for the analysis–incredibly useful. you rock!

best, Jackie

On Tue, Jan 30, 2018 at 12:23 AM, Resist and Replace wrote:

> D. Posnett MD posted: “Let’s look at the important numbers in NY CD-1. > Demographics: Table I source: U.S. Census 2010; > https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_1st_Congressional_District. > Population 720,071 Gender 49.6% Male, 50.4% Female Race 87.7% White, 4.6% > Black, 3″ >

By: Carol Williams

Carol Williams — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:49:11 +0000

Thank you for this analysis! Looks like we need to inspire every Democrat to come out and vote. AND we need the voters who say now, with some justification :”a plague on both your houses” . So what are the issues that truly speak to the lives of Ist District voters? Who is the candidate that can best state those issues simply and eloquently? And present a clear path to addressing them as our Representative? I’m NOT asking for answers on this page!! It’s just that these are the questions that are posed by those figures.

By: D. Posnett MD

D. Posnett MD — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:49:11 +0000

well put!

By: Chris Cory

Chris Cory — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:49:11 +0000

Terrific basis for analysis we haven’t had in this detail. Impressive. Share with other Dem organizations in CD1? Obviously a springboard for more, as Kathryn’s comment meatily demonstrates. How DO we get from “resistance” to “replace,” from against to what we’re for?

By: D. Posnett MD

D. Posnett MD — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 06:49:11 +0000

The Independence Party just endorsed Lee Zeldin. There are about 24K registered “I” voters. Assuming 30% turnout for these voters we are talking about 8000 votes. I had assumed that they would break 50/50 for LZ versus the Dem candidate. But now its more likely that they will break 65/35 for LZ (5200 votes for LZ and 2800 votes for the Dem) which is a deficit of 2400 votes. I had predicted a narrow victory by 1000 votes (see Table III). But now it looks more like a narrow loss by 1400 votes! Every little bit counts!