East Hampton – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

Fish Doing Well

David Posnett — Mon, 25 Apr 2022 21:43:01 +0000

In the East Hampton Star 4/21/22

East Hampton
April 18, 2022

Dear David,

Much of the resistance to the South Fork Wind farm, currently being constructed 35 miles east of Montauk’s Lighthouse, has centered on the question of whether it might impact our local fishing industry. There have been numerous studies of marine species in Europe’s North Sea, probing whether their wind farms, in operation for more than 20 years, may have caused harm. They have not. Some species (like mussels) thrived, especially around the base of the wind turbines!

North America’s first offshore wind farm began operation in October 2016: The Block Island Wind Farm. Just last month (March 2022) a study was published in the ICES Journal of Marine Science examining whether the abundance of fish was affected by either construction (2014-2015) of the Block Island turbines, or operation (2016-2019) of the Block Island turbines. The study is available online as a pdf. It is a highly technical study that begs for a lay language summary.

The abundance of bottom species was assessed in the area of the Block Island Wind Farm and compared to two reference areas: to the south and to the east of Block Island. This was done both prior to, during, and after construction of the Block Island turbines, by monthly trawling. 663,970 fish, representing 61 species, were collected over 7 years. What stands out is the following.

No species were adversely affected by the construction or operation of the Block Island turbines. Black sea bass increased nearly 10-fold in the Block Island turbines area, but not in the reference areas, during operation 2016-2019.

During construction, there were surges in the frequency of spiny dogfish. One catch was too large to be brought on board! These are predators and their frequency is linked to that of their prey (Atlantic cod, herring, squid, butterfish, and mackerel). Maybe they were attracted to the wind farm because their prey was more abundant?

It is important to remember that an increase in a species may mean many different things. There could be increased food for the species. Or there may be a decrease in predators, etc.

The paper contains a ton of data not covered in this brief synopsis. The general gist, however, is that fish are doing well around the Block Island turbines.

I note that this study was authored by marine scientists of INSPIRE Environmental in Newport R.I. This is a company that performs studies commissioned and paid for by private enterprises, like Orsted, with a vested interest in wind farms. One author is an employee of Orsted. The study also relied on commercial fishing partners although these are not listed as authors.

This is a very valuable type of study. I hope it will be repeated as further wind farms are constructed all along Atlantic shores. I also hope that other entities (not only the companies building the wind farms) become involved in funding such studies.

DAVID POSNETT, M.D.

Update on the South Fork Wind Farm & Call to Action

David Posnett — Sun, 14 Feb 2021 17:19:45 +0000

To: Win With Wind supporters
From: Win With Wind steering committee
Date: Feb. 14, 2021
Topic: Update on the South Fork Wind Farm

Dear friends of WWW,

We would like to update you regarding where we stand in the 4-year-long process of getting the South Fork Wind Farm approved, built and operational.

Permits for this project are on 3 tracks:Local (Town of East Hampton)State of New York Public Service Commission: article 7Federal: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)Regarding local permits, the town of East Hampton has voted to grant an easement for Orsted/Eversource to lay the underground powerlines coming ashore on Wainscott’s beaches. The Trustees have also voted to lease the beach area for the cable landing to Orsted/Eversource. See the East Hampton Town website and the East Hampton Star.

Regarding NY State Article 7 Proceedings, a yearlong public comment session has terminated with about 70 “interveners” many of whom tried to slow down the process. A final decision for the Certificate of Environmental Compatibility and Public Need is expected by end of March.

The federal BOEM process is wrapping up too. The following graph shows where we are: We are in the late phases of BOEM’s environmental and technical reviews after which there will be a decision on COP (construction and operations plan) approval.

Many of you have asked how to help support the South Fork Wind Farm. One thing you can do this coming week is to join a ZOOM call managed by BOEM. It is educational as BOEM officials will present the entire project. It is also an opportunity to give an oral (and/or written) commentary in support of renewable energy and SFWF in particular. Several of us took part in BOEM’s first two ZOOM events earlier this week. Would you participate next week? Here is the sign-up link:

Tuesday, February 16, 2021
5:00 pm ET
Registration: Webinar Registration – Zoom
Webinar ID: 991 6301 7012
Phone: 888-475-4499
https://www.boem.gov/renewable-energy/south-fork-wind-farm-virtual-meetings

Here is an example of Michael Hansen’s testimony:
https://youtu.be/SIjwegR2Tas?t=4826

Sincerely,

Support Win With Wind

Trump’s Economic Fallout

David Posnett — Mon, 05 Oct 2020 15:50:37 +0000

Guestwords in the East Hampton Star: Trump’s Economic Fallout for Suffolk County and Long Island

By John Tepper Marlin and Steven Newman October 1, 2020

President Trump’s three main economic initiatives have been radical 2017 cuts in taxes (at the expense of states and localities), unprecedented high tariffs on Chinese goods, and “deregulation” of federal agencies (entailing rejection of science-based programs). These initiatives have turned Washington, D.C., and the country upside down. How has this worked out? Following are some outcomes.

Mr. Trump’s denial of Covid-19 gives him ownership of its economic impact: The virus is not just an act of God. Mr. Trump’s knowing denial of its threat and refusal to recommend wearing masks immediately was a betrayal of his country. The pandemic is a national challenge just as much as the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center towers. An early science-based national response would have greatly reduced the huge negative economic impact.

The corporate tax cuts did not deliver on business investment: The main idea behind the 2017 Tax Act was to reduce the top federal tax rate on corporations from 35 percent to 25 percent. At the last minute, the law, which skipped customary hearings and staff analysis, took the tax rate down to 21 percent, even lower than its major advocates had asked for. Mr. Trump claimed the law would close tax loopholes, about which his newly uncovered tax returns show him to be informed. But few loopholes were closed by the 2017 law. He said businesses would invest the money and thereby create jobs. But after a few months, corporations switched to using the money to buy back their stock, which made a negligible contribution to job creation.

The impact of a fiscal change on the economy is measured by the “fiscal multiplier” — the change in gross domestic product for each dollar of change in tax cuts or spending. A 2015 Congressional Budget Office analysis concludes that fiscal multipliers are more successful for spending programs than tax cuts, for lower-income than for higher-income taxpayers, and for periods of recession than for booms. A widely cited fiscal multiplier for corporate tax cuts is only 0.32, compared with multipliers of 1.71 for an increase in food stamps, 1.55 for extending unemployment benefits, and 1.44 for infrastructure investment.

Tax cuts for individuals: The Tax Act substantially reduced tax rates for the top personal income brackets. When new money gets into the hands of average people, they spend it, because they have real needs that are not being met. This is not true for the very rich. Nevertheless, Mr. Trump argued that tax breaks should go to highest-income taxpayers. Policies that increase unemployment benefits, child credits, and food stamps are not only more equitable, they also generate more jobs.

The Tax Act’s cap on the SALT deduction hit New York State hard: The lowering of the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent in 2017 was paid for in part by a radical cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT) at $10,000 per taxpaying unit, whether single or married and filing jointly. This cap was deliberately targeted at higher-tax blue states. New York State has suffered the most, as indicated by the July jobs data, the latest we have. Jobs were down from a year earlier in every one of the nation’s 49 metro areas with a 2010 census population of 1 million or more. They are below the level of five years ago in more than half of these metro areas.

The five worst-hit metro areas in the country over five years include all three of the large New York State metros — Rochester, Buffalo, and New York City (which takes in a wide swath including Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties, northern New Jersey, and a piece of Pennsylvania). The SALT cap was a shock to state and local officials, who are scrambling to address lost tax revenues, and one of the hardest-hit cities is New York, which, unlike the federal government, must raise new taxes, cut spending, or borrow. That’s a choice between higher taxes, fewer employees, or postponed fiscal stress. Cutting the quality of services, from sanitation and health care to schools, will affect real estate values just as much as high taxes. Coupled with new interest in less-dense living to avoid exposure to Covid-19, this is making the East End of Long Island a beneficiary. But Suffolk can’t afford to let the engine of its prosperity falter.

The cap on the SALT deduction encourages moves by higher-income residents: The cap on the SALT deduction has made it more attractive and urgent for higher-income individuals to move to lower-tax states and communities. Blue-state residents have been moving to red states and will presumably seek to raise standards of education and other government services in their new locations. One silver lining is that it doesn’t take very many people moving from a populous blue state to increase electoral support for quality education in a small red state. Residents of New Jersey and New York are moving to Florida, while Californians are moving to Idaho and Nevada. Residents of New York City are moving to less-dense communities like East Hampton. Activism for better-quality services may generate some surprises in future elections.

Stressed states and localities need cash and are not getting it: This fiscal year has caught nearly every government by surprise. The CARES Act gave the Federal Reserve the right to lend to states and localities, but the Fed is acting as if the facility is intended as a last resort, for municipalities that can’t obtain private financing. But the municipal bond industry and many state laws favor long-term investment, not financing an operating deficit. Forcing municipalities to cut spending while the coronavirus crisis is still at our door is reverse Keynesian of the kind that exacerbated the worst years of the Great Depression.

Fortunately for the Town of East Hampton, the supervisor, Peter Van Scoyoc, and the town board have been able to keep the town functioning on a steady basis, but concentrating federal aid on businesses rather than local government means less fortunate communities face bleak options.

Tariffs on Chinese goods: Mr. Trump’s radical high-tariff moves are being paid not by Chinese producers but by American retailers and consumers, especially the fashion industry, which is suffering a knockout blow. China’s response to the U.S. tariffs has been to divert key supplies to Europe and has created shortages in this country — for example, in personal protective equipment and many medicines. China has meanwhile retaliated with tariffs on U.S. farm products. The relief program seems to have been concentrated on large agribusinesses, leaving small farmers without aid.

Deregulation has created new risks: The president’s science-denying efforts to roll back environmental, pharmaceutical, and other safety regulations have increased risks in each of these areas and have hampered a national response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Over all, the economy has fared poorly. Yet the stock market has had an astonishingly good run. The main reason is that some corporations have been buying back their stock and the Federal Reserve has been flooding the financial markets with liquidity to help banks make loans and stave off business bankruptcies. Historically, the total return on stocks in the S&P 500 since 1947 has been higher under Democratic presidents, 10.8 percent per year, versus a rate under Republicans of 5.6 percent per year. The top performance was under Presidents Clinton and Obama, while the most negative was under Nixon and George W. Bush.

It’s a case of an open spigot for big business and a parched earth for states and local governments and nonprofits. This has left New York City in a financial crisis, but East Hampton has been relatively unscathed.

John Tepper Marlin has lived in Springs since 1981. He was for 20 years a federal government economist and the chief economist to three New York City comptrollers. Steven Newman, a resident of Queens, was chief of staff and first deputy to two New York City comptrollers.

Early Voting

David Posnett — Fri, 11 Sep 2020 15:22:36 +0000

I can’t wait. Voting in NY State and Suffolk county starts on October 24th, a little over 1 month from now!

In contrast to absentee ballots and voting by mail, there seems less risk of your vote not being counted if you choose Early Voting. Your vote is counted when the vote is cast, not weeks later when the mail-in ballots are finally opened, well after Nov. 3rd. You can avoid potential problems. For instance a mail-in ballot could be flagged and not counted because of a technicality, like a signature deemed invalid.

One month or more, between now and October 24th, is an eternity in terms of predicting the Covid-19 situation. Could there be a mini-outbreak? Perhaps even an outbreak related to a polling station? Just in case, you might want to request an absentee ballot. You don’t have to use it if you decide to vote in person by Early Voting.

Note: I am not suggesting that you vote twice!

In June when 6 of us voted early for the primary election in East Hampton, the experience was seamless. There were no lines. We were all done in less than 5 minutes. The poll workers were friendly and helpful, and everyone was masked and mostly 6 feet distanced. All windows and doors to the polling station were open to allow a breeze to circulate. It felt like outdoors. In June there were few voters who chose to vote early. Perhaps this method of casting your vote is still new and unfamiliar to voters. This really needs to change.

Pick your date and time now (!) and make sure you know where the polling station is. It may not be your familiar polling station if you are voting early.

Here is some relevant information from the Suffolk County Board of Elections:

Zeldin’s Blind Allegiance to Trump

David Posnett — Thu, 02 Jul 2020 23:58:27 +0000

Appeared as Letter to the Editor in The East Hampton Star

Shocking Indifference
East Hampton
June 29, 2020

Dear David,

Five months after Covid-19 was first diagnosed in the U.S. and 125,000 deaths later, the Trump administration still has no comprehensive strategy, other than to foist all responsibility on states and governors. Not content with simply offloading the responsibility, the president willfully creates obstacles to dealing with the pandemic by mocking the advice of his own handpicked White House task force.

Sneeringly dismissive of wearing a mask, Trump has framed this incredibly simple way to stem the virus’s spread as a sign of weakness, and as a referendum on himself, claiming in a Wall Street Journal interview that some people wear masks “to signal disapproval of him.” It’s hardly surprising, then, that fanboy Lee Zeldin chose not to wear a mask at Trump’s recent Tulsa rally despite standing shoulder-to-shoulder with over 6,000 people in an enclosed arena.

Coming from a district that has already witnessed the devastating consequences of the virus when it is spreading exponentially, Zeldin’s choice to not wear a mask shows an alarming lack of common sense, a shocking indifference to the sacrifices made by health-care workers, and a callous disregard for every resident of Congressional District 1. It also reveals blind allegiance to a dangerous president who has repeatedly put his own interests far above those of this country.

In November, we must vote Trump and Zeldin out of office.

Sincerely,

CAROL DEISTLER

Lee Zeldin’s Record

David Posnett — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 17:00:39 +0000

No matter where you live — Montauk or Manorville, Smithtown or Shirley, Patchogue or Port Jefferson — we all want our communities to thrive. To do that, we need a representative who puts our needs first: safe drinking water and well-paying jobs. Affordable healthcare and prescription drugs. A tax plan that works for working families. And decisions based on science, not donations. Although Zeldin says he’s fighting for us, his voting record says otherwise. Zeldin serves the needs of big business and the powerful few, not the working families in his district.

Check out the issues here. For example healthcare.

NY-01 deserves a representative who puts us first.

Photo Courtesy of Sean P. Mills Photography

VOTES DON’T LIE. FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL.

Facebook: @LeeZeldinRecord | Twitter: @ZeldinRecord

Website: https://www.leezeldinrecord.com/

Recipe for Fundamental Social Change (from Judith Hope)

David Posnett — Mon, 01 Jun 2020 17:28:40 +0000

Everybody is missing the key element of this challenge. Fundamental social change will not happen at the national level. (Although courageous and coherent national leadership would be really helpful.). It must come from the grassroots up. It must begin in local communities throughout the nation. For example : how many of the following questions can any of us answer:

How many black law enforcement officers are on the East Hampton Police force?
What percentage is this of the local force?

How many black officers are on the Suffolk County law enforcement agency? What percentage?

What is the extent and quality of local police training in Anti-Bias Law enforcement practices?

Does East Hampton have an Anti-Bias Task Force?
Are they active or merely window-dressing?

How many minorities are in local elected public office?

How many black citizens are on the Town/County Democratic and Republican Committees?
What are we doing to recruit more minorities onto the political committees?

You get the gist…. I will get off my soapbox now & I apologize. I have a former local official trapped inside me who occasionally demands to be heard!

Judith Hope

NB: just change the name of the town to “Anytown, Anystate, USA” and then send to your local newspaper!

Protesting the Callous Murder of George Floyd right here in Bridgehampton

David Posnett — Mon, 01 Jun 2020 17:05:58 +0000

PLEASE READ THIS MESSAGE IN ITS ENTIRETY

We are moved to action after the vicious and callous murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police. We stand in solidarity with our brothers and sisters all over the country who demand an end to racist policing. We call on all appropriate agencies to arrest the other three officers who watched former officer Derek Chauvin kneel on Mr. Floyd’s neck and ignored his cries for help. We also remember two other recent victims of deadly racism Ahmaud Arbery and Breonna Taylor and the sadly all too long list of other victims.

On Tuesday, June 2nd at 5pm, we will meet at the Bridgehampton Community House (2368 Montauk Highway, Bridgehampton, 11932). Please wear masks and social distance as possible. Bring signs.

We will then march from the community house to the monument. We will either do this once or twice depending on how many of us there are.

During the final part of the march, for those who are able, we will lay in the road on our stomachs with our hands behind our backs and repeat I can’t breathe for 8 minutes and 46 seconds, the amount of time George Floyd had a knee crushing his neck.

We know this is a difficult time and realize some would like to participate, but are at a higher risk for coronavirus….don’t worry, we got you! Please park your car on Montauk highway in Bridgehampton between the community house and the monument in either direction and put your sign outside your car facing the road. We would also ask marchers to do the same!
Black Lives Matter!

Note from Lisa Votino – All are welcome. Yes I am bringing my child. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me at LMVotino@gmail.com.

COVID-19 in Suffolk County

David Posnett — Wed, 25 Mar 2020 20:52:20 +0000

Patch.com just published the latest local figures for Suffolk County as of yesterday and they were obtained from the official county site here:

	conf. cases	deaths	population 2017	cases per 1000 people *
Islip:	395		333700	1.183697932
Huntington:	358		203276	1.761152325
Brookhaven:	281		486170	0.577987124
Babylon:	271		213,603	1.268708773
Smithtown:	120		117390	1.02223358
Southold:	107		22284	4.801651409
Riverhead:	39		33781	1.15449513
Southampton:	33		58439	0.564691388
East Hampton:	13		32000	0.40625
Shelter Island:	2		2421	0.826104915
other towns	261
total County	1880	18	1503064	1.25077841
at Peconic Landing		6

* some have proposed multiplying this number by 100 because most people are not getting tested (even those with symptoms).

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone reported 1,880 confirmed cases countywide which is a jump of 422 from the day before. Of that number, 163 are hospitalized, with 50 in intensive care.

Southold is particularly hard hit. The Peconic Landing retirement community in Greenport has reported a sixth death related to coronavirus.

Ventilators in Suffolk County

With the desperate need for ventilators , Bellone said 25 are headed to Suffolk County. While numbers were not known for how many are available countywide, Bellone said that number is “woefully inadequate for what that need will be.”

Personal Note (regarding testing)

Contrary to the incredible efficiency of the South Koreans in testing everyone and containing the virus, see this NYT article, we are still struggling. For instance, after a few attempts, costing me hours on the phone to get thru to the county health officials, I finally got them to agree to test me (I have a bad cough and fever). This was finally done 2 days ago, but the test result (Quest Labs) is not expected for one week. There are also no plans to have the 6 others staying in our house tested even though one of them also has symptoms! We have been under self-quarantine for weeks now. But some kind of public enforcement should occur. Even if it is just phone calls to follow up on our progress, from the health department. I highly recommend reading about how South Korea has flattened the curve.

Considering that this is the richest nation on earth, with supposedly the most advanced healthcare, we deserve an ‘F’. It is too late to change the course of COVID-19 in the US I fear. But in the meantime, we should all consider volunteering. There are many opportunities and there will be more.

I called the county to volunteer as a retired MD. I may perhaps be Corona virus-positive right now, but when I recover and come out of self-quarantine, I could not be safer, knowing that I will have acquired disease-fighting antibodies. Those of us that have recovered and those that test positive for the presence of antibodies will be ideally suited to help care for the sick and critical patients.

Gov. Cuomo has announced that he wants retired health care professionals to be recruited. Suffolk county is just starting an effort along these lines. I contacted Suffolk County Medical Reserve Corp. Here is their response:

Thank you for contacting us. Volunteer opportunities exist within the Suffolk County Medical Reserve Corp. Please visit this site for more information and to join through the NYS HCS:

https://suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/FRES/Office-of-Emergency-Management/Medical-Reserve-Corps

From that point you will be contacted for an assignment.

Jennie Nedell , Volunteer Programs Coordinator

Jennie.Nedell@suffolkcountyny.gov

631-852-4853

I will warn you about the sign-up process which puts you into NY.gov. It is cumbersome but I will gladly help you with it!

I urge you to sign up now. Jennie is very friendly and willing to help. They have possible jobs for all of us and much can be done from home (where you might be under self-isolation), electronically or by phone, etc. If you are elderly, or no longer registered as a health care professional or can’t travel around the county, don’t worry, they have jobs for you!

It will get crazy in 1-3 weeks when the system is overrun. Now is the time to sign up to volunteer.

David

Hospital Beds Will Run Out

David Posnett — Tue, 17 Mar 2020 22:23:22 +0000

This is a great tool to check the future availability of hospital beds in your area.

On Eastern Long Island we will nearly certainly run out:

Infections are supposed to peak by early May which puts us in the 6 months category. Estimates are that up to 50% of the population may be infected and therefore up to 10% of the population may need a hospital bed! That means about 2000 beds for East Hampton Town!

Headlines from today: Suffolk Coronavirus: 3 Dead; 97 Cases; Drive-Thru Testing Coming

A hospital bed and ventilator shortage exists statewide and new closures may take effect to flatten curve, Cuomo says.

There should be contingency plans to create makeshift hospitals such as in schools, or meeting rooms, or large halls (LTV in East Hampton).