Labor – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

When the Forgotten Remain Forgotten, no one is Secure

David Posnett — Sun, 26 Apr 2020 20:05:48 +0000

The Covid-19 pandemic is putting the deepening class divide in America into stark relief.

Four new classes are emerging.

The Remotes: These are professional, managerial, and technical workers – an estimated 35% of the workforce – who are putting in long hours at their laptops, Zooming into conferences, scanning electronic documents, and collecting about the same pay as before the crisis. Many are bored or anxious, but they’re well off compared to the three other classes.

The Essentials: They’re about 30% of workers, including nurses, homecare and childcare workers, farm workers, food processors, truck drivers, warehouse and transit workers, drugstore employees, sanitation workers, police officers, firefighters, and the military. Too many Essentials lack adequate protective gear, paid sick leave, health insurance, and childcare, which is especially important now that schools are shuttered. They also deserve hazard pay. Their vulnerability is generating a wave of worker activism at businesses such as Instacart, Amazon, Walmart, and Whole Foods. Mass-transit workers are organizing work stoppages. Trump’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration has the legal authority to require private employers provide essential workers with protective gear. Don’t hold your breath.

The Unpaid: They’re an even larger group than the unemployed – whose ranks could soon reach 25%, the same as in the Great Depression. Some of the unpaid are furloughed or have used up their paid leave. So far in this crisis, 43% of adults report they or someone in their household has lost jobs or pay, according to the Pew Research Center. An estimated 9.2 million have lost their employer-provided health insurance. Many of these jobs had been in personal services that can’t be done remotely, such as retail, restaurant, and hospitality work. But as consumers rein in spending, layoffs are spreading to news organizations, tech companies, and consumer-goods manufacturers. The unpaid most need cash to feed their families and pay the rent. Fewer than half say they have enough emergency funds to cover three months of expenses, according to a survey conducted this month by Pew. So far, government has failed them, too. Checks mailed out by the Treasury last week are a pittance. Extra benefits could help, but unemployment offices are so overwhelmed with claims that they can’t get money out the door. Loans to small businesses have gone largely to big, well-connected businesses, with banks collecting fat fees. On Wednesday, Republican Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said he is opposed to any further federal aid to state and local governments, suggesting states declare bankruptcy instead. Which means even less money for unemployment insurance, Medicaid, and everything else the unpaid need. The resulting desperation is fueling demands to “reopen the economy” long before it’s safe. If it comes down to a choice between risking one’s health and putting food on the table, many will take the latter.

The Forgotten: This group includes everyone for whom social distancing is nearly impossible because they’re packed tightly into places most Americans don’t see: prisons, jails for undocumented immigrants, camps for migrant farmworkers, Native American reservations, homeless shelters, and nursing homes. While much of New York City is sheltering at home, for example, more than 17,000 men and women, many already in poor health, are sleeping in roughly 100 shelters for single adults. All such places are becoming hotspots for the virus. These people need safe spaces with proper medical care, adequate social distancing, testing for the virus and isolation of those who have contracted it. Few are getting any of this. Not surprisingly, the Essentials, the Unpaid, and the Forgotten are disproportionately poor, black, and Latino and they are disproportionately becoming infected. An Associated Press breakdown of available state and local data showed close to 33% of those who have died from Covid-19 are African American, despite representing only 14% of the total population in areas surveyed. The Navajo Nation already has lost more people to coronavirus than have 13 states. Four of the 10 largest-known sources of infection in the United States have been correctional facilities. These three groups aren’t getting what they need to survive this crisis because they don’t have lobbyists and political action committees to do their bidding in Washington or state capitals.

The Remotes among us should be concerned, and not just because of the unfairness of the Covid-19 class divide. If the Essentials aren’t sufficiently protected, the Unpaid are forced back to work earlier than is safe, and if the Forgotten remain forgotten, no one is secure. Covid-19 will continue to spread sickness and death for months, if not years to come.

This Tuesday, April 28 at 11 a.m. Pacific Time/2 p.m. Eastern Time, I’ll be having a live discussion with Stacey Abrams about the future of the Democratic Party and voting rights in the age of coronavirus. You can tune in here.

Stay Safe, Robert Reich, Inequality Media P.S.

D. Posnett: Note for D. Trump and L. Zeldin: best to consider all of these 4 groups when attempting to rebuild the economy. Just one sick group with rampant COVID-19 will bring us all down. Viruses don’t really care about who you are. Celebrity or a jailbird, homeless or a billionaire, it’s all the same to them.

New York’s Suffolk County Economy: Not so Hot?

David Posnett — Sat, 08 Sep 2018 18:34:14 +0000

Representative Lee Zeldin likes to claim that he has contributed to a “booming” economy resulting in jobs in his district (the eastern part of Suffolk county).

Lets examine this for a minute.

First, jobs

This is the graph of unemployment since the housing crisis (the last major recession) in 2008. While unemployment came down from 10% to just under 5% under Obama, it went to just under 4% under Trump. 5/6 of the recovery (83%), as measured by reduced unemployment, occurred during the Obama years and 1/6 (17%) of the recovery occurred under Trump.

Similar numbers apply to Suffolk county. But what is the job growth in Suffolk county, compared to the rest of the state of New York? Well, it is nothing to brag about. For instance, job growth between Dec 2016 and Dec 2017 on Long Island (Nassau & Suffolk) was 12,500 jobs representing 0.9% job growth. Compared to the rest of the state or to NY City those are measly results: For NY State there were 156,800 new jobs representing 1.6% job growth over the same time period. And if you assess job growth for the period of Dec 2014 through Dec 2017 (the period that Zeldin has been in office), it is 0.934 %. By comparison job growth during the prior 4 years (when Tim Bishop was in office), was 1.425% (Suffolk county total employment numbers).

If job growth had been average on Long Island (equal to the NY State average), we would have had 22,220 new jobs between Dec 2016 and Dec 2017, not 12,500. The shortfall: 22,220 minus 12,500 = 9,720 jobs are in fact jobs we could have had, if we had just “average” job growth. Those are 9,720 jobs we lost.

Second, taxes.

Voters are not stupid. The republican tax cuts benefited primarily businesses and the super rich. The average person in Suffolk county might see a difference in either direction by a few hundred dollars for their federal taxes. The big issue, however, is SALT (State and Local Tax) deductions. These are now no longer fully deductible. And we won’t see the effects until 2019. Here is a simple calculation. If my NY State taxes are 10,000 and my local taxes (realestate/school taxes) about 15,000, for a total of 25,000 SALT deductions, I can still deduct 10,000, according to the new Republican tax plan, so I will have to pay taxes on the remaining 15,000. At a tax rate of 30% that is about $5000 additional taxes. Our taxes in Suffolk county will therefore rise substantially, specially in communities in Western Suffolk where real estate taxes are high. Zeldin tried to weasel out of this, but in the end he supported the Rep. tax bill and did not fight for his constituents. Amazing that he is now listing the new tax law as one of his achievements! Thanks Lee!

Third: Wages

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent data, average weekly wages in Suffolk and Nassau are close to the national average of $1,109 per week: Suffolk $1,217, Nassau $1,242. But importantly wages have been stagnant and not growing. Slow wage growth indicates that the U.S. economy has not yet fully recovered.

This graph shows lagging employee pay since 2010 while corporate profits are soaring!

From: “Paychecks Lag as Profits Soar, and Prices Erode Wage Gains” NY Times.

Wage stagnation in Suffolk county is real. For instance average weekly wages grew by 0.4% between the 2nd quarter of 2016 and 2017. That compares to 2.3% growth in New York State and 3.2% growth nationally. Suffolk county was ranked 315th in a national survey of comparable counties. This does not compare well with other NY State counties:

Monroe, N.Y.	92
Bronx, N.Y.	114
Kings, N.Y.	148
Oneida, N.Y.	156
Dutchess, N.Y.	168
Erie, N.Y.	189
Orange, N.Y.	189
Westchester, N.Y.	196
New York, N.Y.	215
Queens, N.Y.	215
Richmond, N.Y.	215
Broome, N.Y.	231
Onondaga, N.Y.	247
Saratoga, N.Y.	282
Albany, N.Y.	310
*Suffolk, N.Y.*	*315*
Rockland, N.Y.	336
Nassau, N.Y.	339

Fourth: the stock market

It is astounding that Republicans, like Lee Zeldin, are claiming credit for a soaring stock market. They will mention the tax give-away to businesses (thus increasing profits), the abolition of regulations and hard-nosed trade wars with allies and others. A bull run based on borrowed money and a soaring national deficit seems dangerous. Add the inflation expected from the trade war. Accordingly, the Warren Buffett Indicator predicts a stock market crash in 2018! Perhaps Zeldin and company, should also be credited with the crash, when it happens?

The party of “fiscal hawks” has become a joke. They can not claim to be fiscally conservative or responsible. The national debt now equals $176,000 for each tax payer in the US. Watch the dizzying numbers here! We all know what comes next: sanctimonious statements from Rep. lawmakers about how we need to cut Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security! Oy vey.

Relevant addenda:

1) my friend writes:

It is infuriating that Trump’s only accomplishment was to inherit a strong economy from Obama.

Cynical Republicans then gave a huge tax cut to the wealthy and a little one to the middle class. All conventional economic theory says that that will provide some fiscal stimulus for the economy through at least 2018, but at the cost of ballooning deficits and the inevitable Republican calls to cut Medicare and Social Security. Why are such simple economic ideas so hard to convey to the public?

2) An interesting piece in the NYT demonstrates how essential wages are. Jobs per se, paying so little that you can not survive on them, will not solve the problem of poverty.

Promises Broken

David Posnett — Mon, 14 May 2018 19:11:46 +0000

Trump campaign promises (which some liberals supported) remain largely ignored. He ran as an economic populist and bucked the GOP’s economic brand, contributing to his appeal. But he has violated every one of his promises.

Donald Trump promised to negotiate the price of prescription drugs covered through Medicare. “we’d save $300 billion a year,” “We don’t do it. Why? Because of the drug companies.” “We’re going to negotiate like crazy.” On May 11th, Trump announced the federal government would NOT directly negotiate lower drug prices for Medicare. And he chose not to allow American consumers to import low-cost medicines from abroad.
there will be no infrastructure bill this year. Contrast that with promises of hard-hat jobs modernizing roads and airports across the country. Instead we got a regressive tax cut, with a huge increase in the deficit.
Trump promised over and over to pull out of Nafta and renegotiate a much better deal. Nafta was the ultimate culprit for declining blue-collar wages. He promised a better deal: “I don’t mean just a little bit better, I mean a lot better.” But, there is no easy “better” trade deal to be negotiated.
Trump also repeatedly promised universal health care. “Everybody’s gotta be covered. … I am going to take care of everybody, I don’t care if it costs me votes or not” But he never compromised with Democrats and sabotaged the existing program. And now the rate of uninsured is climbing again.
“Draining the swamp” … Trump promised to enact reforms to reduce the power of lobbyists and business. He specifically
promised:

A constitutional amendment imposing term limits on members of Congress
A ban on federal employees lobbying the government for five years
A ban on members of Congress lobbying for five years
Tighter rules about what constitutes a lobbyist, instead of letting people call themselves consultants
Campaign finance reform limiting what foreign companies can raise for American political candidates
A ban on senior government officials lobbying for foreign governments

All empty promises!

In stead Trump embraced Washington sleaze with unprecedented gusto. This includes lobbying for foreign governments: Michael Cohen was a conduit for business interests to buy their way into Trump’s good graces.

Trump also promised, to raise taxes on the rich, including on himself.
“It’s going to cost me a fortune, which is actually true,” he said. Instead, the only promises he has kept are the ones that put money in the pockets of Trump and his cronies.

Broken Promises should represent a guide for the 2018 campaigns across the country to turn Congress blue. Sitting Rep. congress members that have backed Trump, like Lee Zeldin, are all complicit in these lies to their constituents.

Jobs? Where are they?

David Posnett — Wed, 02 May 2018 18:08:43 +0000

From: John Tepper Marlin, Ph.D., President, Boissevain Books LLC, Principal, CityEconomist
WHERE ARE THOSE GREAT NEW JOBS FOR LONG ISLAND THAT TRUMP AND ZELDIN PROMISED

These figures were released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They are for Nassau and Suffolk Counties. March 2018 compared with March 2017 (the numbers are not seasonally adjusted, so you have to use year-over-year monthly comparisons).

Unemployment	4.2%	4.6%	Up .4 of a percentage point
Payroll Jobs	1,482,557	1,464,134	Down 18,423

YOU CAN BE SURE IF THE NUMBERS WERE GOOD, ZELDIN WOULD BE TRUMPETING THEM. BUT THEY ARE NOT GOOD.

NEWSDAY:

Long Island’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent in February, from 4.8 percent in February 2017, state data released Tuesday show. It was the fifth consecutive year-over-year increase since October.

The rate rose in 10 months of 2017 and has been steadily moving away from what is considered full employment, which is 4 percent or below.

The number of employed residents fell by 9,500 last month, compared with a year earlier, to 1.39 million, the lowest for the month since 2015. The number of unemployed Long Islanders rose by 3,300 to 74,300, the Labor Department said. That was the highest for the month since 2015.

Southampton has the worst jobless rates for the entire island!

Trickle down economics = voodoo economics = fool me once, fool me twice…

Trump Promised to Help Workers — But, Did He Really Mean It? His Justice Department just dropped appeal to save Obama overtime rule

David Posnett — Tue, 05 Sep 2017 21:33:00 +0000

BY JOHN BOWDEN – 09/05/17 12:35 PM EDT 47

The Justice Department announced on Tuesday that it will not defend an Obama-era Labor Department rule that would have extended overtime benefits to more than 4 million workers after a federal judge struck it down last week.

Bloomberg BNA reported on Tuesday that the administration will drop its appeal, filed in December, signaling it agrees with the court decision.

Last week, a federal judge appointed by former President Barack Obamastruck down the rule, saying it improperly focused on workers’ salaries instead of their job description. The rule would have forced employers to pay overtime to most salaried workers earning less than $47,476 annually. The salary cutoff for overtime pay now stands at $23,660.

The judge, Amos Mazzant, initially put the rule on hold last November. It was set to go into place on Dec. 1. The ruling was celebrated by conservative and industry groups such as the Restaurant Law Center, which represents the restaurant industry.

“The Department of Labor under the previous administration overstepped its authority in making changes to the federal overtime rule. Today’s decision to invalidate the rule demonstrates the negative impacts these regulations would have had on businesses and their workers. We will continue to work with [the Department of Labor] on behalf of the restaurant industry to ensure workable changes to the overtime rule are enacted,” the Restaurant Law Center said last week in a statement.

In December, the Labor Department under Obama wrote that it “strongly disagreed” with the judge’s initial hold on the rule. “We strongly disagree with the decision by the court, which has the effect of delaying a fair day’s pay for a long day’s work for millions of hardworking Americans,” the agency said.

“The department’s overtime rule is the result of a comprehensive, inclusive rulemaking process, and we remain confident in the legality of all aspects of the rule.Progressive groups reacted swiftly to the Trump administration’s decision.

In an email, the president of American Bridge accused Trump of trying to “further rig the economy for the rich.” “Donald Trump personally screwed over hundreds of employees by refusing to pay their overtime and now he’s using the Justice Department to slash the paychecks of 4 million hard-working Americans who will not receive the overtime pay that they earn. This is Trump’s latest action that is at odds with his campaign trail rhetoric, and it further shows how his economic agenda is solely designed to further rig the American economy for the rich – including Trump himself – at the expense of American workers,” group president Jessica Mackler wrote.

“The American Dream is moving farther and farther out of reach of our country’s workers and Donald Trump is to blame.”

Trump Just Did A Big Favor For Employers, Including His Own Family Business

David Posnett — Wed, 28 Jun 2017 22:13:03 +0000

HUFFINGTON POST

The president’s conservative nominees for the National Labor Relations Board could reverse a progressive era at the agency.

By Dave Jamieson

YURI GRIPAS / REUTERS

WASHINGTON ― When it comes to the power balance between workers and employers, President Donald Trump just tipped the scales in favor of guys like himself.

Over the past week, Trump chose a management attorney and a former GOP staffer to fill vacancies on the National Labor Relations Board. Their nominations could help reshape labor policy in favor of corporations, potentially reversing Obama-era decisions and further weakening the U.S. labor movement.

If confirmed as expected, Trump’s picks ― William Emanuel, who was named Tuesday, and Marvin Kaplan, who was named last week ― will occupy two seats on a five-member board that serves as referee between businesses and labor groups. The NLRB’s decisions help determine how easy or difficult it is for workers to unionize ― which, in turn, affects unions’ footprint in the U.S. economy, and how much bargaining power rank-and-file workers have with their employers.

That includes Trump’s own family hotel business, which has come before the NLRB several times over labor disputes.

After years of rulings friendly to unions in the Obama era, the labor board put in place by Trump will be far more likely to side with employers in contentious, policy-setting cases. With its new Republican majority, the board may undo notable decisions in recent years that helped more workers secure collective bargaining rights in the workplace.

Industry lobbies like the National Restaurant Association applauded Trump’s nominations, as did the anti-union Workforce Fairness Institute.

The NLRB is an independent federal agency, meaning its members are nominated by the president, but don’t answer to him. The five members serve staggered terms, traditionally with three members hailing from the president’s party. What is currently a 2-to-1 Democratic majority held over from the Obama years would become a 3-to-2 Republican majority if Trump’s nominees are confirmed.

Emanuel is a lawyer at the management-side firm Littler Mendelson. Kaplan served as a lawyer for Republicans on the House Committee on Education and the Workforce; he’s currently a commissioner at the Occupational Safety and Health Review Commission.

The confirmation of Trump’s picks will not be difficult, thanks to the “nuclear” rules change made by Democrats during a previous fight over the labor board. When the Republican minority stonewalled Obama’s NLRB picks and prevented the board from functioning, Democrats reformed the rules in 2013 so that nominees only require 51 votes to pass the Senate. Republicans now hold 52 seats.

The NLRB found itself at the center of political fights on Capitol Hill during the Obama years, with Republicans accusing it of “killing” jobs and catering to unions. Trump would have nominated Emanuel and Kaplan with heavy input from business lobbies and GOP lawmakers, seeking to change course from the board’s progressive direction.

If Emanuel and Kaplan are installed, the board could gradually flip some of the Obama-era rulings that helped workers organize in the workplace. Union membership is hovering near an all-time low in the U.S. ― just 6.4 percent of private-sector workers belong to unions now ― but labor groups hoped the board’s liberal rulings could help.

One such ruling, Specialty Healthcare, allowed workers to unionize in small groups, which employers claim put them at a disadvantage in union campaigns. Another case, Browning-Ferris, broadened the definition of who can be considered a “joint employer,”potentially dragging franchisors like McDonald’s into labor disputes involving their franchisees. Yet another, involving Columbia University, paved the way for graduate students at private universities to unionize.

Republicans in Washington held congressional hearings to blast rulings like those. But once Emanuel and Kaplan are confirmed ― probably after the Senate’s summer recess ― the pendulum is bound to swing back toward employers.