blue wave – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

Texas is Voting. Wish us Luck!

David Posnett — Wed, 24 Oct 2018 00:46:20 +0000

This report is From Meg Gottemoeller.

She moved from East Hampton to Houston last year and continued her volunteer and activist work in support of a blue wave.

Today:

“Lines were around the block for early voting yesterday! “

Yesterday:

Texas is voting! Wish us luck!

Up before dawn for a rally with Beto and hundreds of supporters before two weeks of early voting starts at 8 am. There is still a lot of getting out the vote but we could not have asked for a more all-in year-long effort from a candidate than we’ve gotten from Beto. Thank you for your support over the past months. See him in action in the attached clip. Meg. “

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The Blue Wave in CD-1

David Posnett — Sat, 06 Oct 2018 22:34:33 +0000

I have always wanted to know whether our efforts of canvassing and voter registration are actually paying off!

Now we have some data. Suffolk County Board of Elections collects data on new voter registrations on a monthly basis. I have compared data published in Feb 2018 with data published on October 1st 2018. New Voter registrations are definitely up (Fig. 1). And it turns out that they are heavily skewed towards Dem. party registration (see Fig. 2). The numbers are actually about 2x higher than in comparable midterm election years from the past. This bodes well for a “blue wave”.

Fig. 1. Data on new voter registrations for Feb 2018 (light blue) versus October 2018 (dark blue).

Fig. 2. New voter registrations are heavily skewed towards the Dem. party, data from October 2018. Not shown are percentages of C, II, WP, U, etc.

These numbers have to be considered in the context of general population changes. It turns out that the general population in Suffolk County has been shrinking steadily. For the period of 2/2018 to 10/2018 the numbers are:

Date 2/2018 10/2018

Suffolk 961,409 954,150 -0.76%

NY-CD1 472,989 470,344 -0.56%

NY-CD2 320,104 316,739 -1.05%

NY-CD3 168,316 167,067 -0.74%

This mirrors a similar decrease in the total population comparing 2015 to 2016 (-0.76%) and 2016 to 2017 (-0.6%). There are still more births than deaths, and more international arrivals than domestic arrivals. Thus, the decrease in the population on eastern Long Island is most likely due to young people leaving Suffolk county, a well-recognised phenomenon. Are these young people that are leaving Suffolk, mainly democrats? Are they being replaced by newly registered people that are also mainly democrats? If this were the case the overall percentages of people in the Dem party would not have changed much. But the data show that the Dem party has been growing faster than any other party in NY CD-1.

Here are the numbers of total registered Dem and Rep voters in NY CD-1 from 2012 and from Oct 2018:

Date 2012 10/2018

Dem 132,683 144,211 +8.7%

Rep 156,075 159,184 +1.99%

All voters 445,374 470,344 +5.61%

Comparing data for all political party registrations between 2012 and 2018, Dems are up +8.7%, Rep +1.99%, Con -2.13%, Indep +5.95%, Unaffiliated +5.32%, Working families -0.32%.

Sources:

Voter reg Oct 2018

https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/enrollment/congress/congress_nov12.pdf

https://resistancesuffolk.blog/2018/02/08/new-registrations-favor-dems-in-cd-1/

Go National or Local?

David Posnett — Mon, 27 Aug 2018 19:38:31 +0000

LTE published August 23rd in the East Hampton Star:

To the Editor:

The East Hampton Star editorial about a “First District Dilemma for Democratic Voters” (July 5, 2018) asks whether one should give money and work for political causes nationally or locally. The question itself goes against the grain of my experience.

There is no dilemma. Giving money to national campaign groups is a good shortcut to supporting national efforts to get money to elections where the money will make the most difference. That doesn’t preclude giving to local candidates.

For people with the time and interest to investigate, and work on, local issues and candidates, the rewards are great. As a canvasser for many political campaigns for six decades, I can testify to its effectiveness and the satisfaction it brings. It’s like investing in companies. You are more likely to succeed, and take pleasure in succeeding, if you understand the product and the prospective buyer. Nothing replaces face-to-face contact.

A successful local political effort is enormously satisfying. You see results in the people you talk to and in the election results. In New York Congressional District 1, my wife, Alice, and I have been supporting Perry Gershon. We were pleased when he won the primary, and ecstatic when his issues-oriented campaign attracted the support after the election of all four of the non-winning candidates.

JOHN TEPPER MARLIN, PH.D.

I would like to add that recent political races have yielded impressive Democratic gains (since early 2017) that were often quite unexpected. One has to wonder what might have happened had folks abandoned their local candidates!

The Dem “swing” average at +16 points in elections held in 2017.

In NY CD-1 the R>D diferential was about 16 points in 2016 for the congressional race. To win, all that is needed is an 8 point Dem swing. That is absolutely feasible in the current environment and given the history of the elections in this district. It is also comparable to what has happened in all the special elections. In other words, no “First District Dilemma for Democratic Voters.”

Flipping the house: an interactive map!

David Posnett