CD-1 – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

We have been warned.

David Posnett — Fri, 04 Sep 2020 15:39:32 +0000

https://www.ft.com/content/27c9a6e8-ffb7-11e9-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47

Rather than denial and political inertia from the Republican party now in power, what if we had acted immediately on what our science community understood and warned us about, the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic? The resulting health, economic, and social distortions could have been limited and we might now not be facing the terrible long lasting effects of that stubborn denialism.

Well, it may be that Covid-19 is an unfortunately dark, albeit resolvable, prequel to the vastly more all encompassing and dangerous “monster in the garden”—global warming. It’s that dangerous and just that close.We have understood and been warned by scientists of global warming for over a century. We understand the long term consequences: the advancing irreversible tipping points, melting polar regions which cool our planet, desertification of global farmlands, dying coral reefs, ocean pollution, acidification and ‘’hot zones” which toxify its organic life— impairing its CO2 uptake and oxygen generation.

We’ve been warned of rain forest destruction, loss of permafrost ecosystems, methane spikes, rising sea levels, ubiquitous record high global temperatures, year round multiple mega-hurricane systems, fires in the Arctic, fire tornadoes, fires everywhere, evaporating fresh water supplies, drought, famine, war…

We have been warned of this global climate emergency.Lacking a collective carbon conscience and oblivious to long term consequences we continue, blindly, pumping heat trapping gasses into the atmosphere, rapidly drawing down our allowable carbon emissions budget which at this rate will be dangerously overdrawn in less that 15 years. By then we may have lost control with tipping points falling like dominoes unfolding into the unimaginable horror of a planetary “hothouse” with all the anticipated dystopia.

Like the pandemic warning this year we have been warned of the years still to come. The time is calling for radical dependence on science. We have the knowledge and technologies to meaningfully overcome the climate challenges which actually can ultimately improve our lives. We have the science but not the will for what is demanded of us now to literally save the very life sustaining capacities of our planet.

Facing a global climate emergency, with high risks and little time, we need science, expertise and wise, brave leadership. Our voices in government must soon be guided by alert visionary science making smart science-based decisions.

Let’s fire Lee Zeldin(R) whose dismal environmental record earns him a dreadful 13% positive lifetime enviro-score from The League of Conservation Voters and elect Nancy Goroff, PHD, who will represent CD1 consciously and undertake the heavy lifting of crafting the complex actionable policies needed to meet the enormous climate challenges we can no longer reasonably push aside. We’ve been warned.

James Ewing, Water Mill NY

Congressional Debate: Perry Gershon and Lee Zeldin

David Posnett — Tue, 30 Oct 2018 15:26:08 +0000

About 500 people attended a real live debate Oct. 30th, at the high school in Hampton Bays. This was the only debate in the Southfork area of Congressional District NY CD-1.

Watch the entire debate (1:34 min) here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_-PCF4ckso

or here on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ResistandReplace/

The Main Reason why I am Voting for Perry

David Posnett — Mon, 22 Oct 2018 00:46:51 +0000

Reprinted from the Southampton Press from this week

By Michael Koegler

I have been following the race in NY01 from the very beginning of the primary season. The first time I met Perry Gershon was at the Democratic candidate’s forum held at the StonyBrook College campus in Southampton on January 6^th. At that time there were six candidates vying to unseat incumbent Republican Lee Zeldin in this year’s general election. All of the candidates made their pitches regarding healthcare, gun control and issues related to international relations such as moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. I had not made up my mind as to whom I would support and went to the event with an open mind. I listened to all of the candidates articulate their positions on many of these important issues and decided that Perry Gershon was the best one of the group to challenge Lee Zeldin in the general election.

Fast-forward nine months and here we are six weeks away from one of the most important elections in the history of the United States. That is a bold statement so let me try to explain why I feel that way.

There used to be a time not too long ago when I was a Republican. I switched my affiliation after the 2008 financial crisis because I felt that the Republican Party had lost its way as a result of the Tea Party and the ultra-partisan politics that they ushered in. No one represents the ultra-partisan Tea Party politics in this country more than Lee Zeldin.

During his term in office, Lee Zeldin has showered praise on Donald Trump and demonized all of those that have been critical of him and his administration. He has enabled Trump’s criticism of the press, FBI, justice department, intelligence community and anyone else that happens to be the target of a Trump tweet storm. He is not willing to provide a check to Trump’s power and been nothing less than a Trump sycophant, parroting his hateful and petty rhetoric without regard for the damage it causes our Democracy. Zeldin has also perpetuated many of Trump’s conspiracy theories, including his claims that there was no election interference by the Russian government and that the Mueller investigation is a witch hunt.

It is one thing to play partisan politics, but another thing altogether when you fail in your responsibility to defend our Democracy and the constitution. Zeldin’s unwillingness to keep a check on Donald Trump is the single biggest reason to vote for Perry Gershon in November. To be clear, I do not believe that Trump should be impeached, but we desperately need a check on his power. Lee Zeldin is not willing to do that, but Perry Gershon is. It is time for change.

The Blue Wave in CD-1

David Posnett — Sat, 06 Oct 2018 22:34:33 +0000

I have always wanted to know whether our efforts of canvassing and voter registration are actually paying off!

Now we have some data. Suffolk County Board of Elections collects data on new voter registrations on a monthly basis. I have compared data published in Feb 2018 with data published on October 1st 2018. New Voter registrations are definitely up (Fig. 1). And it turns out that they are heavily skewed towards Dem. party registration (see Fig. 2). The numbers are actually about 2x higher than in comparable midterm election years from the past. This bodes well for a “blue wave”.

Fig. 1. Data on new voter registrations for Feb 2018 (light blue) versus October 2018 (dark blue).

Fig. 2. New voter registrations are heavily skewed towards the Dem. party, data from October 2018. Not shown are percentages of C, II, WP, U, etc.

These numbers have to be considered in the context of general population changes. It turns out that the general population in Suffolk County has been shrinking steadily. For the period of 2/2018 to 10/2018 the numbers are:

Date 2/2018 10/2018

Suffolk 961,409 954,150 -0.76%

NY-CD1 472,989 470,344 -0.56%

NY-CD2 320,104 316,739 -1.05%

NY-CD3 168,316 167,067 -0.74%

This mirrors a similar decrease in the total population comparing 2015 to 2016 (-0.76%) and 2016 to 2017 (-0.6%). There are still more births than deaths, and more international arrivals than domestic arrivals. Thus, the decrease in the population on eastern Long Island is most likely due to young people leaving Suffolk county, a well-recognised phenomenon. Are these young people that are leaving Suffolk, mainly democrats? Are they being replaced by newly registered people that are also mainly democrats? If this were the case the overall percentages of people in the Dem party would not have changed much. But the data show that the Dem party has been growing faster than any other party in NY CD-1.

Here are the numbers of total registered Dem and Rep voters in NY CD-1 from 2012 and from Oct 2018:

Date 2012 10/2018

Dem 132,683 144,211 +8.7%

Rep 156,075 159,184 +1.99%

All voters 445,374 470,344 +5.61%

Comparing data for all political party registrations between 2012 and 2018, Dems are up +8.7%, Rep +1.99%, Con -2.13%, Indep +5.95%, Unaffiliated +5.32%, Working families -0.32%.

Sources:

Voter reg Oct 2018

https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/enrollment/congress/congress_nov12.pdf

https://resistancesuffolk.blog/2018/02/08/new-registrations-favor-dems-in-cd-1/

VIDEOS on 2 Great Unity Events

David Posnett — Sat, 21 Jul 2018 18:25:18 +0000

Perry Gershon speaks at the Democratic Unity Rally in Smithtown 6.28.18 Posted by Mark Ledzian: https://vimeo.com/277871509

Perry Gershon and all 4 primary Dem. opponents join forces at July 1st Unity Event in the Springs (East Hampton). Filmed by Nigel Noble https://vimeo.com/280783262

Jobs? Where are they?

David Posnett — Wed, 02 May 2018 18:08:43 +0000

From: John Tepper Marlin, Ph.D., President, Boissevain Books LLC, Principal, CityEconomist
WHERE ARE THOSE GREAT NEW JOBS FOR LONG ISLAND THAT TRUMP AND ZELDIN PROMISED

These figures were released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They are for Nassau and Suffolk Counties. March 2018 compared with March 2017 (the numbers are not seasonally adjusted, so you have to use year-over-year monthly comparisons).

Unemployment	4.2%	4.6%	Up .4 of a percentage point
Payroll Jobs	1,482,557	1,464,134	Down 18,423

YOU CAN BE SURE IF THE NUMBERS WERE GOOD, ZELDIN WOULD BE TRUMPETING THEM. BUT THEY ARE NOT GOOD.

NEWSDAY:

Long Island’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent in February, from 4.8 percent in February 2017, state data released Tuesday show. It was the fifth consecutive year-over-year increase since October.

The rate rose in 10 months of 2017 and has been steadily moving away from what is considered full employment, which is 4 percent or below.

The number of employed residents fell by 9,500 last month, compared with a year earlier, to 1.39 million, the lowest for the month since 2015. The number of unemployed Long Islanders rose by 3,300 to 74,300, the Labor Department said. That was the highest for the month since 2015.

Southampton has the worst jobless rates for the entire island!

Trickle down economics = voodoo economics = fool me once, fool me twice…

The Trumpist from Suffolk County

David Posnett — Thu, 08 Mar 2018 13:44:49 +0000

Perry Gershon, Democratic Candidate for New York’s First Congressional District

Published by Medium.com March 7th 2018

Traveling across Suffolk County, I’ve seen how disappointed and frustrated people are with Congressman Lee Zeldin. I’m hearing how they want someone in Washington who fights to grow the middle class on Long Island, make our communities safer, and ensure everyone has access to affordable health care — someone who fights for what’s right. But that’s not what Rep. Zeldin is focused on. He’s backing an agenda that’s out of touch with of Suffolk county, beyond that of even a “regular” Republican representative.

Zeldin’s 9% grade from the League of Conservation Voters, his opposition to consumer protection, and his radical anti-choice views are not representative of our community. But Zeldin’s frightening extremism, however, is on display in his politicized attacks on the Mueller Investigation, the DOJ, and FBI, and his unconditional alliance with the NRA. And he bears responsibility for the Trump tax plan and its destructive effects on Long Islanders. Luckily, we can defeat him in November.

The Mueller Probe:

Zeldin has led the effort to delegitimize the country’s law enforcement — simply because Mueller’s investigation is going after the truth. Zeldin has joined with Rep. Devin Nunes leading the criticism of the FISA warrant process and even holds the absurd position that we need a special counsel to investigate the special counsel. Mueller’s probe is doing the job and has already led to 22 indictments against Russians and other conspirators for meddling in the US elections in 2016. And the investigation is nowhere close to finished!

In the face of these indictments, Zeldin has not called for congressional efforts to combat the threat Russia poses to our elections. He has not taken any affirmative steps to protect the 2018 and future elections. And he fails to even recognize that Russian hacking was an effort to discredit US elections and played a role in Donald Trump’s victory. Simply put, our Congressman has refused to acknowledge that our democracy is under attack because he is putting Party over Country.

Zeldin’s crusade culminated on Feb. 28 when he issued a formal letter to Attorney General Sessions requesting appointment of a new Special Counsel to investigate the FBI and DOJ. Co-signed by 12 other far-right congressmen, the letter was so extreme that even Devin Nunes, himself, did not co-sign it. A week later, he even claimed that: “Donald Trump & family being investigated for winning election w/no evidence they committed any crime to win the election. Sick, crazy & wrong!” Seriously? Zeldin has become a conspiracy theorist, using the words “transparency” and “accountability” to describe an effort to politicize law enforcement and undermine the rule of law in the defense of a potentially corrupt president.

The Tax Plan:

Republicans in Congress pushed a tax plan that’s good for corporations and special interests and devastating for Long Island families. Their plan benefits the richest one percent of Americans, at the expense of Brookhaven, Smithtown, Westhampton, and all our other communities. The tax plan eliminated the State and Local Tax deduction(SALT), which will hit Long Islanders hard by raising taxes and causing property values to decline.

Zeldin’s claim that he stood up for Long Island by opposing the final version of the tax plan simply is not good enough. He voted to empower Paul Ryan, who, in his role as Speaker of the House, led the tax fight. He hasdoing nothing to restore the SALT deduction that Suffolk County relies on. He has repeatedly supported and defended Donald Trump, who has prided himself on the bill. Worse yet, Zeldin stated that his objection to the bill was not its elimination of SALT, but to the limits being imposed all at once. Zeldin even claimed he would fully support a phase in of all of the injurious provisions if they occurred over 3–4 years. It’s clear that for Zeldin, it is ideology first and Long Island last.

Gun Control and the NRA:

Zeldin’s reaction to the Parkland shooting is shameful. He has resisted all calls for common sense gun safety laws, has refused to back a ban on weapons of war, and even thinks its smart to arm teachers.

Unfortunately, this comes as no surprise. He is not only proud of his A rating from the NRA but has taken more money from the NRA than any other congressperson from New York. He has a long history of supporting fringe positions that threaten New York residents’ safety. In 2015, he co-sponsored a bill that allows the transportation of firearms in locked containers across state lines, effectively facilitating gun-trafficking into New York State. Just last year, he co-sponsored another bill that would allow gun owners to carry concealed weapons across state lines. Both bills would essentially render New York State’s gun safety laws null and void.

We deserve a Congressman who will protect the Mueller probe and support our law enforcement agencies, do everything in his or her power to restore the full deductibility of state and local income taxes, and fight for effective and commonsense gun safety. Long Islanders are fed up with Donald Trump and his enablers in Congress like Rep. Zeldin. People are looking for bold ideas and real solutions. It’s time Long Island had a strong voice to fight for high-paying jobs, affordable health care, and safer communities. If we’re going to change Washington, we’ve got to change the people we send there. Come November, let’s fight, together, and make sure Rep. Zeldin doesn’t have another term in Congress.

Perry Gershon

New Registrations Favor Dems in CD-1

David Posnett — Thu, 08 Feb 2018 20:47:11 +0000

Released by the Suffolk County Board of Elections: new registrants for the last month by party and by political subdivision. This is a measure of how well we are doing with efforts to register voters. (Table I)

	Total	Dem (%)	Rep (%)	Blank (%)	other (%)	diff D/R (%)
Babylon	320	39.7	15.9	35.6	8.8	23.8
Brookhaven	537	38.5	18.1	36.5	6.9	20.5
East Hampton	41	51.2	9.8	34.1	4.9	41.5
Huntington	321	34.6	23.4	33.6	8.4	11.2
Islip	338	38.2	17.8	37.6	6.5	20.4
Riverhead	32	31.3	25.0	40.6	3.1	6.3
Shelter Island	9	66.7	0.0	22.2	11.1	66.7
Smithtown	163	27.6	31.3	31.9	9.2	-3.7
Southampton	100	50.0	16.0	30.0	4.0	34.0
Southold	23	30.4	34.8	30.4	4.3	-4.3
Total	1884	37.8	19.6	35.2	7.3	18.2
CD-1	866	38.7	19.3	35.5	6.6	19.4
CD-2	640	39.1	16.9	36.3	7.8	22.2
CD-3	378	33.9	25.1	32.8	8.2	8.7

Ofcourse new registrations over the last month are a drop in the bucket, but it seems these drops are of different sizes. The percentage of new registrations/total numbers of registered voters is captured here. Note that Shelter Island, Southampton, Babylon and East Hampton, did best in terms of adding new voters (Table II)

	total new	total	% new
	registrations	registrations	registrations
Babylon	320	129889	0.25
Brookhaven	537	308719	0.17
East Hampton	41	16956	0.24
Huntington	321	141901	0.23
Islip	338	199128	0.17
Riverhead	32	21884	0.15
Shelter Island	9	2391	0.38
Smithtown	163	84877	0.19
Southampton	100	38998	0.26
Southold	23	16666	0.14
Total	1884	961409	0.20
CD-1	866	472989	0.18
CD-2	640	320104	0.20
CD-3	378	168316	0.22

Original data from the Suffolk County Board of Elections:

The All-important Numbers for NY CD-1

David Posnett — Tue, 30 Jan 2018 05:23:45 +0000

Let’s look at the important numbers in NY CD-1.

Demographics:

Table I (Source: Ballotpedia, based on 2010 census)

Population	720,071
Gender	49.6% Male, 50.4% Female
Race	87.7% White, 4.6% Black, 3.5% Asian
Ethnicity	12.8% Hispanic
Unemployment	6.60%
Median household income	$83,144

Nearly 20% are minorities (Black, Asian, or Hispanic). Some Hispanics will call themselves “racially” white, but claim hispanic ethnicity.

Lesson: Don’t count on a huge minority vote because of disgust in Trump’s racial bigotry and Zeldin’s backing of Trump.

Party Affiliation:

Source: https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/enrollment/congress/congress_nov12.pdf

Table II

	raw numbers	percentages
Dems	143,917	30.4
Reps	162,212	34.3
Cons	11,806	2.5
Ind	23,215	4.9
Blank	125,516	26.6
Other	5,985	1.3

Total	472,651	100

Assuming equal voter turn out for each party, and assuming that ‘Independants’, ‘Blanks’ and ‘Other’ break out 50/50 for the Dem versus Rep candidate, Dems can not win.

Assuming all Dems vote Dem and all Reps vote Rep, we still need about 30,000 votes from the Ind, Blanks, Other. And perhaps those 30,000 votes could include some from the Rep/Cons group.

Lesson: This has long been the main point of Tim Bishop whenever he speaks: Dems cannot win in CD-1 with out help from those registered in the red, purple or blank parties.

Voter Turnout

Many are quick to claim that we can win with a high Dem turn out. The so called blue wave expected for 2018. But let’s look seriously at the data. It is the data from prior elections. Ofcourse you can claim that in the Trump era nothing from the past applies. But this is all we have got. So lets look at it.

Table III (Source: Ballotpedia )

Column 1 lists the races going back to 2008.

Column 2 tallies the vote numbers for the Dem candidate

Column 3 tallies the vote numbers for the Rep candidate

Column 4 tallies the total votes cast (some voters did not vote for either R or D candidate): notice the much lower numbers for midterm elections in 2010 and 2014.

Column 5 lists the difference between the total votes for D and R candidates: notice the trend from positive numbers (Dem majority) to negative numbers (Rep majority). Our district is becoming more and more red.

Column 6 is the vote percentage of total registered voters that went to the Dem candidate*

Column 7 is the vote percentage of total registered voters that went to the Rep candidate*

* these numbers are calculated as the votes obtained by the Dem (or Rep) candidate per total number of registered voters. 472,651 is the current number of registered voters. This does not equal the turnout within the Dem party or within the Rep party, because f.ex. an undetermined number of U (unaffiliated) would also have voted for either D or R candidate.

Note also the low numbers for the Dems in 2010 and 2014, suggesting that Dem voters did not vote (low turnout) in those years.

I have made some assumptions, see ‘Assumed 2018’, in Table III:

Dem vote numbers and Rep vote numbers might be similar to 2010
Dem turnout conservatively estimated to be similar to 2010 (historically this is a high turnout for a midterm election) – however if a country wide blue wave materializes the turn out could be even better
I assumed a similar turnout of Rep voters to prior midterm elections, for example 2010. BUT this would mean that roughly half of the voters that voted for Trump/Zeldin in 2016 fail to turn out and vote in 2018. That is probably wishful thinking. National polls suggest that Trumps base is holding stead fast with 35-40% of Americans approving Trump’s performance. I would expect that to be true in CD-1 too. See also Marc Rauch’s comment below.
It is clear from these data that LZ needs his Rep. base to turn out in 2018 and this explains his current turn to the far right, his support for Trumps immigration hawks, like Chief of Staff Kelly, and Stephen Miller in the White house, and his position attacking the FBI along with Devon Nunez etc.
Here is another scenario proposed by Marc Rauch: The 2017 off-off-year elections saw a huge turnout (to some extent attributable to the Con/Con) just for a local election in an odd-numbered year. Democrats in Brookhaven Township rolled up impressive numbers (compared to 2015), but Republicans in Brookhaven Township rolled up even more impressive numbers (compared to 2015) and beat them solidly. This shows the Republican machine in Brookhaven Township is alive and well and this is where 63% of CD-1 voters are. So, 2018 may not be a sleepy off-year Congressional election. Republicans will fight tooth and nail and spend huge sums of money (remember why that tax bill had to pass) to keep control of both houses of Congress. Dems hopefully will fight just as hard or harder to grab the House or Senate and hopefully will be reasonably well-funded. An enormous amount of attention will be focused on the November elections nationally, and it will be more like a presidential election year than an off year in terms of turnout. The bottom line is, assume high turnout for both Dems and Reps. The fight will be over who can get most of those in the middle to break their way. If this scenario proves correct, we will need 30,000 crossover votes as described above (see Table II).

Bottom line: this will not be a cakewalk.