influenza – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

Trump’s Base: 2 Anecdotal Cases Regarding Sources of News

David Posnett — Fri, 06 Nov 2020 19:51:53 +0000

From Gigi Morris (Sag Harbor):

This may offer some insight into what is happening in this country.

About 3 weeks ago, I had a cleaning lady coming to my house in NH (she lives in VT) and I mentioned that I’d be home. So, of course, she and I would both need to wear a mask. She said she wouldn’t come if she had to wear a mask (having told me earlier she was strapped for cash.) She said to call her “when this flu blows over.” I said I didn’t think it would blow over any time soon. She said she needed to “educate me.” She explained that she doesn’t listen to all that “fake news,” and sent me this link (see below) with a note, “the truth will set us free.” She refers to covid as the “19-flu.” You don’t have to watch it, but it’s essentially a German lawyer explaining that it’s all a hoax, no worse than the flu.

This is not someone I would have ever thought of as ‘on the fringe’. In fact, she is very nice. Maybe 50. Always seemed over-educated for the job.
This is the link on the German lawyer that she sent me:
https://vaccineimpact.com/2020/testimony-of-german-attorney-those-responsible-for-corona-scandal-must-be-criminally-prosecuted-for-crimes-against-humanity/

Likewise, a very nice handyman who I’ve known for a few years came by about a week prior to that, and told me the same thing. He’s kind and has two black children and is ‘pro-choice’ and is planning to work in solar power. And yet, he also said he avoids the mainstream “fake” news and gets his information “from friends and neighbors.” Trump, he said, just speaks his mind and the media is undermining our democracy.

COVID is Much Much Worse than the Flu

David Posnett — Sat, 02 May 2020 18:53:42 +0000

I am still getting questions about whether COVID is any worse than the annual flu (even from my family). The simple answer is YES, IT IS MUCH WORSE!

There are a number of recent posts and on-line articles discussing the reasons and I have posted on this site, previously.

Christopher Ingraham writes on May 2, 2020 in WaPo, based on data from Jeremy Samuel Faust, an emergency room physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital at Harvard Medical School.

“If we measure flu mortality the same way we count COVID-19 deaths, the picture becomes very stark.” Flu deaths are “inflated statistical estimates” and COVID-19 deaths are “actual numbers.” Rather than comparing apples and oranges, one must compare apples to apples. One must start with the number of directly confirmed flu deaths, which the CDC tracks on an annual basis. In the past seven flu seasons, going back to 2013, that tally fluctuated between 3,448 and 15,620 flu deaths:

Note that these numbers are very different from the CDC’s final official flu death estimates. For 2018-2019, for instance, the 7,172 confirmed flu deaths translated to a final estimate of between 26,339 and 52,664 deaths. That’s because the CDC plugs the confirmed deaths into a model to adjust for what epidemiologists believe is a severe undercount.

Then lets add a bar for this season’s non-adjusted and directly observed COVID-19 deaths, which stand at 63,259:

There are not likely to be many more flu deaths, as we are past the worst of the flu season. But COVID-19 mortality continues to rise at a rate of about 2,000 deaths per day.

Using an apples-to-apples comparison, we can say that the coronavirus has already killed eight times as many people as the flu in 2019-2020.

The coronavirus, Faust writes, “is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse.”

Here are some other related articles and stories:

the original paper by Dr. Faust
COVID-19 No Worse Than the Flu? Hardly
Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges: The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates
Why we don’t know the True Death Rate for Covid-19

State of Emergency: COVID-19

David Posnett — Sun, 15 Mar 2020 03:36:22 +0000

Thank you East Hampton Star, for running the historical piece “Then and Now” on March 12th:

“Dr. David Edwards, the town health officer in 1918, reported six cases of influenza in early October. A week later there were 35 cases, and the Neighborhood House on Three Mile Harbor Road was turned into a temporary hospital. Dr. Edwards ordered the village movie theater closed that week as well. The next week, there were 125 cases….Edward O. Lester, 25, appears to have been the first East Hamptoner to die of influenza… Many of the dead were young, like Mr. Lester. ”

COVID-19 has been likened to the Spanish Flu of 1918, and it is much more serious than our annual seasonal flu.

“Covid-19 is not the flu. It’s worse,” writes Brian Resnick in VOX. Propublica agrees: “This Coronavirus Is Unlike Anything in Our Lifetime, and We Have to Stop Comparing It to the Flu”

Comparisons with the Spanish Flu of 1918 are discussed here. While the mortality rates may be similar there are important differences: According to National Geographic, Spanish flu killed with deadly speed, with many reports of people who woke up sick, then died on their way to work.

But perhaps the most important difference between the two viral diseases comes down to historical timing. The Spanish flu pandemic coincided with World War I, which helped the disease quickly spread along with mobilized troops from place to place. In contrast, many nations have enacted travel restrictions to areas high in coronavirus COVID-19 infections with the purpose of preventing quick spread.

I decided to watch 2 videos.

1. A 40 min video on the 1918 Flu pandemic (Spanish Flu). It is a reminder of a) how scary a pandemic can be, b) what strict containment measures can achieve, c) how leaders that do not follow public health advice get us into trouble. NB: President Wilson got infected by the Spanish Flu and was quite ill.

2. A 45 min Youtube Australian video on the earliest phases of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. It is a scary reminder of what may lie ahead for all of us. Seen through the eyes of Australian families stuck in Wuhan since the very beginning of the outbreak.

I know these are long videos, but you probably have plenty of time and are stuck at home. East Hampton has declared a state of emergency. Suffolk County has too. You might want to understand why!