jobs – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

Local Economy Dependent on Immigrants

David Posnett — Fri, 25 May 2018 14:24:38 +0000

Recent reports describe increased round up of latinos. Along with suspected “bad guys” ICE is sweeping up many more innocent undocumented workers. This was highlighted by the latest Trump visit to Long Island and Lee Zeldin’s cheer leading. Read more here and here.

Here is the flip slide however: the Long Island Farm Bureau is begging Zeldin to help with temporary work visas to keep their farms open. Landscapers, pool companies, roofers, house cleaners, deck builders, construction crews are absolutely reliant on Latino workers. Here is a relevant article which was published in March 2018.

From: the Southampton Press

BY MICHAEL WRIGHT

For many business owners on the East End, immigrant workers from Central America and South America have become the indispensable backbone of their workforce.

Many firms employ immigrant labor, and some say it’s because of their work ethic.

Business owners across East End trades this week said that if newly aggressive federal deportation policies targeting undocumented immigrants overreach, the effect on the local workforce could threaten their businesses’ ability to operate—and could even drag down the local economy as a whole over time.

Owners and employees of a cross-section of medium-sized businesses in the residential development industry—construction, landscaping and residential painting companies with between 15 and 40 full-time employees—all of whom live in Southampton or East Hampton, spoke this week about their concerns.

None would speak on the record by name, for fear of both legal fallout and becoming the focus of public anger in such a volatile climate, but said that the view of the immigrant community’s importance to the local community is often misunderstood or underestimated by others.

Each of the business owners said that the bulk of their employees are Latino immigrants. Some acknowledged that they are often not certain about a worker’s status, since New York State does not require an employer to verify legal residency of an employee when they file W-2 or 1099 forms linked to a tax identification number. Others said they are aware the majority of their workforce are not legal residents.

But all said that every employee on their crew, documented or not, has a tax ID number or state-issued work permit and pays the full complement of state and federal taxes that any legal resident would pay, and are covered by workmen’s compensation insurance. They said that most other medium or large local companies like theirs have similar arrangements with their employees.

Each also said that, apart from the economic firestorm that would consume their industry if large numbers of immigrants were taken from, or left, the local community, they see most of their employees as upstanding members of the local community: family men, homeowners, devout church-goers and consumers.

Seeing The Need

Most, but not all, of the business owners spoken to said they support Donald Trump and his tough stance on immigration enforcement. They do so in large part because they say they see the impact of companies that, unlike theirs, employ undocumented workers off the booksmaking it difficult to compete with them in the marketplace.

Those who said they support the president’s approach are confident—or at least hopefulthat the administration’s policies would not cost them the most critical components to their business.

“As a business owner, I see both sides of it,” a Southampton-based painting company owner said. “I do the right thing in terms of taxes and insurance, so I have a certain amount of animus toward the guys I see who aren’t doing the right thing and are charging much less and taking business from me.

“But I also see the need,” he added, with a slight sigh. “We created what we have here, and now we need [immigrant workers] to sustain it. It’s hard for me to say what should be done. Except, I guess, I know what needs to be done: The guys who want to work and are paying their taxes and keeping out of trouble, they should be allowed to stay. But they should definitely go after the bad guys.”

Another business owner echoed the sentiment that tougher immigration enforcement should apply only to violent or repeat criminals, not law-abiding people, and said his immigrant employees do, too.

“These are honest, hard-working guys—that is not who they’re going to go after,” a Southampton landscape company owner said of his impression of federal immigration authorities. “They’re only going after the ones who are killing, and the gang members. My guys understand that what the president is talking about is the criminals. And they want the criminals out too.”

Business, Not Greed

Asked why their crews are made up of mostly, if not entirely, immigrant workers, every employer offered a slight variation of the same sentiment: Not because they are cheaper, but because they are the best workers. “White guys, especially the young ones, don’t really want to work all that hard, and when there’s waves they don’t want to work at all, so they just don’t show up,” said one. “I’ve had white guys, black guys, Spanish guys, Russian guys, Polish guys, Irish guys. The Spanish guys show up to work every day, and they work hard. They would work 60 or 70 hours a week, seven days, if they could.”

Each told a series of very similar anecdotes about their travails as employers in finding and hiring non-immigrant workers.

“I started banging nails as soon as I got out of college, and I’d hire my buddies from high school,” recalled a high-end construction company owner based in East Hampton Town. “They’d be smoking pot in the port-apotties, doing blow in the office trailer, or they wouldn’t show up. Then, one year, I hired two Colombian guys. They showed up for work, they didn’t drink—and eventually my all-American crew became an all-immigrant crew.” “I remember my dad’s workers when I was a kid: They were all white, and even then I could tell they were the bottom of the barrel—but that was all you could get back then,” said the painting company owner. “I’ve had two American guys work for me, and they weren’t worth a darn. I get five or 10 Spanish guys looking for jobs every day—nobody of any other race or color has even called for a job.”

A Cottage Industry

Immigrant workers are more than just an expedient business solution to the need for more and more labor in the local economy, one of the businessmen said. They were the foundation that allowed it to rise to a new labor-intensive stratosphere of elegance, ornateness and complexity.

The painting company owner offered that, in the last two decades, the immigrant labor market, particularly among companies not following costly taxation and workman’s comp requirements, allowed the residential development market to grow at an exponentially faster rate and evolve in more labor-dependent ways than it would have otherwise.

“The spec house market was completely dependent on that,” he said of companies staffed by off-the-books immigrant employees. “You take the standard 6,000-square-foot spec house: I have to charge $100,000 to paint that house. But [a spec builder] gets them done for $40,000, because he uses the guys that are paying off the books. If that wasn’t there, all that spec building in Bridgehampton and Water Mill, and all over, that would never have happened.”

Going a step further, the painter said that if the robust supply of immigrant workers were removed or substantially diminished, the demands of the current market could not be met, and that attempts to keep up would likely, over the years, force economic contraction, as services like caring for intricately sculpted landscapes and seemingly endless renovations and expansions of existing homes become more and more expensive.

“Eventually,” he said, “even the rich people are going to say it’s not worth it.”

A Catch-22

The employers labored to cast aside a common misconception about undocumented workers: that they are paid substantially less than legal residents and citizens for the same jobs, and that they do not pay taxes.

Each said their immigrant workers typically make the standard wage for the jobs they do. They acknowledged that there are companies dodging the system but said that most of the recognizable names in the development-related trades in this region are following the letter of the law in regard to employees whose immigration status is clouded.

“These guys take deep pride in paying taxes,” a construction company owner said of his employees. “They want to play by the rules, desperately. If they could pay $10,000 or $15,000 to be able to apply [for legal residency] tomorrow, they would do it in a second. They would buy health insurance in a second—if they could. And they are strong and healthy, they eat well, they work hard and are in shape. They would be paying into the system, not taking from it.”

In 2013, the Social Security Administration issued a report on “unauthorized immigrants” that estimated undocumented but on-the-books workers were paying about $12 billion a year into the Social Security program alone. The report pointed out that the vast majority of those workers would never be eligible to receive the benefits of the program later in life like citizens who paid the same amount in taxes would. Additionally, undocumented residents get no tax refunds.

Three employees of one of the business owners who sat in the company’s office on a recent Friday to explain how they came to be part of the massive undocumented workforce, for their part, said that they are happy to pay taxes and would be willing to pay fines or fees for their past immigration violations if it would give them a path to legal residency. Two said they have already spent many thousands trying to find such a path, and in some cases lost tens of thousands more to unscrupulous attorneys who took their payments up front, in cash, and then vanished.

“I tried to come here legally first,” said Jose, a construction worker. “My brother got here by applying. My seven brothers, we all applied. Only one got a visa.” Jose, who is 29 and a native of Ecuador, said that in his hometown he could work for his father’s masonry businessmaking about $35 a month. “I make more than that in an hour now,” he said.

Another of the workers, an Ecuadorian immigrant named Gallo, said that he pays more than $20,000 a year in taxes and workman’s comp insurance. In 2006, after being arrested by immigration agents while visiting Niagara Falls, he paid an attorney $35,000 to help him apply for legal residency. The man simply never filed the application and vanished with his money.

Since then Gallo has reported annually to an immigration court judge to show that he is fully employed and paying taxes. He worries now, however, that if he reports to the court again, he could be seized and deported. “It’s a Catch-22,” said his boss, who said several employees fear they are in a similar bind. “They’re scared to go to the immigration court like they’ve been doing, to show that they’re doing things properly. But if they don’t go, then they’ll get a deportation warrant put on them. So they could get deported if they don’t go—but if they do go, they could still get deported.”

Two of the three men own homes and have young children who are U.S. citizens. They say that in recent weeks they have grown scared of their future in the United States, even though they have seen no actual evidence of deportations from the community.

One, named John, a former Colombian national soccer team member, said that he worries that if he or he and his wife were to be deported, their mortgage would go into default and be seized by a bank—the tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars already invested in it simply lost.

His son is an American citizen. When he was 3 he was diagnosed with leukemia and relies on medicines now that he could likely not get if the family left the United States together.

“He has to stay here because he has to keep getting his medicine—if I had to leave, what would become of him,” John said. “My son, he is 10. He tells me all the time, ‘Daddy, be careful.’”

Comment:

If you want an emetic, take a look at the vitriol in the comments section of the original article, with comments by anonymous people with telling names like “SlimeAlive”. DP

The Issues that Matter in NY CD-1

David Posnett — Mon, 21 May 2018 01:45:42 +0000

From: Steven Lupo as posted on FaceBook:

I was knocking on doors for Kate Maguire Browning today. At one of the first homes I went to, a young woman answered the door. She looked exhausted. I apologized for disturbing her and explained why I was there. She asked me for Kate’s position on healthcare and I gave her the best answer I could. I then asked why it was important to her.

She responded her daughter was terminally ill. She been up most of the night and that’s why she looked exhausted. My heart broke. She said life has been a struggle, not only because of her daughters illness but also the constant battle with insurance and pharmaceutical companies, who try to deny her daughter coverage.

I brought up the fact that my daughter was born premature and spent 14 days in NICU. But I was lucky. I could concentrate on my daughter’s recovery. I didn’t have to worry about going broke or fighting insurance companies. I stated no American should have to go through what she is going through.

At this point I reminded her of Zeldin‘s position on healthcare. I reminded her how he voted to take healthcare away from millions of Americans. He has voted on the side of the insurance and pharmaceutical companies, to charge us more money, while offering inferior coverage.

Later in the day I met a widow on a pension. She is living on her deceased husband‘s federal pension. She is very worried that the Trump administration will reduce her benefits. She’s worried if Social Security and Medicare will be there for her children. She’s worried the inflation we are starting to see will eat away at her fixed income.

Many live in the echo chamber of #RussiaGate, but most Americans are looking much closer to home. They are concerned about their jobs, affordable healthcare, affordable homes, lower taxes, educating their children, environmental issues, the opioid epidemic, etc.

That’s what I focus on as I speak to folks. That is the message we need to focus on to unseat Zeldin.

And we must never, NEVER, bash the other Democratic candidates. NEVER!

We must unite and rally around the primary winner. We have a tough battle ahead. Please stay positive!

Jobs? Where are they?

David Posnett — Wed, 02 May 2018 18:08:43 +0000

From: John Tepper Marlin, Ph.D., President, Boissevain Books LLC, Principal, CityEconomist
WHERE ARE THOSE GREAT NEW JOBS FOR LONG ISLAND THAT TRUMP AND ZELDIN PROMISED

These figures were released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They are for Nassau and Suffolk Counties. March 2018 compared with March 2017 (the numbers are not seasonally adjusted, so you have to use year-over-year monthly comparisons).

Unemployment	4.2%	4.6%	Up .4 of a percentage point
Payroll Jobs	1,482,557	1,464,134	Down 18,423

YOU CAN BE SURE IF THE NUMBERS WERE GOOD, ZELDIN WOULD BE TRUMPETING THEM. BUT THEY ARE NOT GOOD.

NEWSDAY:

Long Island’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent in February, from 4.8 percent in February 2017, state data released Tuesday show. It was the fifth consecutive year-over-year increase since October.

The rate rose in 10 months of 2017 and has been steadily moving away from what is considered full employment, which is 4 percent or below.

The number of employed residents fell by 9,500 last month, compared with a year earlier, to 1.39 million, the lowest for the month since 2015. The number of unemployed Long Islanders rose by 3,300 to 74,300, the Labor Department said. That was the highest for the month since 2015.

Southampton has the worst jobless rates for the entire island!

Trickle down economics = voodoo economics = fool me once, fool me twice…

“Trump Slump” in tourism

David Posnett — Tue, 02 Jan 2018 17:53:32 +0000

I have previously posted on the “Trump Slump” in tourism. And here, and here too. But it is time to reexamine the issue because the data over one solid year indicate that the slump is here to stay! How will this affect us locally? TBD.

U.S. Economy Losing Billions As ‘Trump Slump’ Continues In Tourism Sector

By Alexandra Talty , Women@Forbes

Disney Land. The Grand Canyon. The Golden Gate Bridge. Yosemite. The World Trade Center.

The United States has long been a bucket-list destination, but as executive announcement piles on executive announcement, international visitors are wary of choosing the tourism-behemoth for their next vacation.

Inbound arrivals have fallen 1.4% since January, while global arrivals have jumped 4.6%, leading many travel industry experts to say the ‘Trump Slump’ is real. Credit: Nick DeSantis, Forbes.

After the announcement of the first two travel bans in January and March, the number of international travelers arriving in the U.S. has dramatically dropped, according to ForwardKeys, a European travel-prediction firm.

https://tpc.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-14/html/container.html

Looking at the number of U.S. inbound arrivals – or the number of international tourists arriving at airports around the country – the firm found that the number of visitors dropped 1.3% following the announcement of the first travel ban on January 27. On June 26, when the second ban was partially re-instated, inbound visitors dropped again by 2.8%.

Experts expected to see falling arrivals following the first executive announcement in January, when European interest in visiting the U.S. fell 12% but to see the number of arrivals impacted so quickly is startling.

“The confusing and convoluted travel bans have done nothing but worsen the country’s reputation around the world,” said Lee Abbamonte, an American travel expert who has been to every country in the world, in an email. Although he believes there should be a vetting process, he says that as it stands now, it is too stringent, and confusing for many international citizens.

A small percentage drop in arrivals is no small potatoes when translated into a dollar amount. In 2016, the U.S. travel and tourism industry generated over $1.5 trillion in economic output, supporting 7.6 million jobs, according to SelectUSA, an international trade analyst firm. That represents 2.7% of overall GDP.

“I’m not surprised inbound travel is dropping,” agrees Liz Carlson, a travel expert blogger who was recently named New Zealand’s top blogger, in an email. An American, Carlson lives in Wanaka, New Zealand. Most of her friends are foreigners, and Carlson says that each of the executive announcements, as well as laptop bans, have put many off from traveling to the land of the free and the brave.

She says, “Whenever I meet people traveling, everyone says something about it, and nothing is positive … My friends who have traveled there recently are worried about the rules where TSA can look through your phones or laptops.”

In March, after the second travel ban, Oxford Economics, an advisory and analysis firm, found that travel could drop by 8% due to the executive announcements and procedures to restrict immigration to the U.S.

“Our latest detailed findings confirm what our data has been predicting since the first travel ban. There has been a ‘Trump Slump,’ and the strong dollar has compounded it,” said ForwardKeys co-founder and CEO, Olivier Jager, in an email. “This must be worrying for the US economy – travel is a huge earner for the United States, and relative to the rest of the world, its tourism exports are losing ground.”

Tourism is the seventh largest employer in the US economy. In 2012, nearly 84% of travel companies identified themselves as small businesses. For those Americans, the outlook is bleak.

Over the first three months of Donald Trump’s presidency, 697,791 fewer foreigners visited the U.S. than normal, down 4.2% to 15.8 million people, according to new figures released by the U.S. Department of Commerce. That drop accounted for $2.7 billion in spending, according to Tourism Economics.

In cities like New York, foreign tourists spend four times as much as domestic tourists, so even slight drops in inbound arrivals spell big losses for the U.S. economy. According to US Travel, international travel spending directly supports 1.2 million American jobs, accounting for nearly $32.4 billion in wages. the typical overseas traveler spends around $4,360 when visiting the United States, over an 18 night stay.

Cities across the U.S. have seen the writing on the wall and are bracing for declining tourism revenues. Los Angeles Tourism board led the charge earlier this year, putting millions towards a marketing campaign to welcome foreigners with a gigantic human powered sign that welcomed incoming planes in four languages. Other tourism boards have followed suit with their own campaigns.

But as the third executive announcement is implemented and the Supreme Court hearing on the previous travel bans is cancelled, many industry experts wonder if this is just the beginning of another lagging sector in the U.S. economy as tourists choose destinations with easier, more comprehensive visa policies.

https://tpc.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-14/html/container.html

Alexandra Talty is a writer and columnist, exploring the world on a journalist’s paycheck. Follow her adventures on Twitter and Instagram.

Comment (D. Posnett): I have wondered how a real estate mogul like Trump who owns hotels and golf courses does not seem to care about tourism. It is interesting to follow stock prices of major hotel chains like Hilton and Marriott and see that they are doing just fine. In fact, like Trump businesses, they are expanding internationally. So perhaps this means that worldwide tourism is not that much affected. It is just that international tourists are chosing to go elsewhere rather than visiting the USA. For example, as the per Dan Caplinger in the Motely Fool: “Marriott sees prosperous days ahead. Sorenson noted that the international opportunity that the hotel company has is huge, pointing out that more than half of rooms under development are located outside North America“.

So much for those American jobs that Trump voters had bet on.

Nassau-Suffolk continues to Lag Well Behind New York City in Job Growth.

David Posnett — Fri, 20 Oct 2017 20:34:03 +0000

Submitted by John Tepper-Marlin

New York State Department of Labor
Contact Us: 518-457-5519

October 19, 2017

NYS Economy Added 84,400 Private Sector Jobs over the Past Year

From September 2016 to September 2017, New York State’s private sector job count rose by 84,400, or 1.1%, according to preliminary figures released today by the New York State Department of Labor. In September 2017, the state’s private sector job count fell by 36,500. Since the beginning of Governor Andrew M. Cuomo’s administration, New York State’s economy has added 967,500 private sector jobs and experienced employment growth in 68 of the past 81 months. In September 2017, New York’s statewide unemployment rate increased from 4.8% to 4.9%.

The State’s private sector job count is based on a payroll survey of 18,000 New York employers conducted by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly payroll employment estimates are preliminary and subject to revision as more data become available the following month. The federal government calculates New York State’s unemployment rate based partly upon the results of the Current Population Survey, which contacts approximately 3,100 households in New York State each month.

“Despite today’s preliminary job report, when looking over the past year, New York State’s economy has added more than 84,000 private sector jobs and experienced historically low statewide unemployment rates,” said Bohdan M. Wynnyk, Director of the New York State Department of Labor’s Division of Research and Statistics.

Note: Seasonally adjusted data are used to provide the most valid month-to-month comparison. Non-seasonally adjusted data are valuable in year-to-year comparisons of the same month – for example, September 2016 versus September 2017.

United States and New York State: August – September 2017

1) Jobs data (seasonally adjusted):

The table below compares the over-the-month change in the total nonfarm and private sector job counts in the United States and New York State in August-September 2017.

Change in Total Nonfarm and Private Sector Jobs
August – September 2017
	Change in Total Nonfarm Jobs: (private sector + government)		Change in Private Sector Jobs:
	Net	%	Net	%
United States	-33,000	0.0%	-40,000	0.0%
New York State	-34,100	-0.4%	-36,500	-0.5%

2) Unemployment rates (seasonally adjusted):

The State’s unemployment rate is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, using a statistical regression model that primarily uses the results of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS contacts approximately 3,100 households in New York State each month. In September 2017, the statewide unemployment rate increased from 4.8% to 4.9%. In addition, the number of unemployed New Yorkers increased over the month, from 466,100 to 472,700.

Unemployment Rates (%)*
*Data are preliminary and subject to change, based on standard procedures outlined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
	September 2017*	August 2017	September 2016
United States	4.2	4.4	4.9
New York State	4.9	4.8	4.9
New York City	5.1	4.9	5.3
NYS, outside NYC	4.7	4.8	4.7

U.S., New York State and Metro Areas: September 2016 – September 2017

1) Jobs data (not seasonally adjusted):

The following table compares the over-the-year changes in the total nonfarm and private sector job counts occurring in the United States, New York State and metro areas within the State between September 2016 and September 2017.

Change in Total Nonfarm and Private Sector Jobs
September 2016 – September 2017
	Change in Total Nonfarm Jobs: (private sector + government)		Change in Private Sector Jobs:
	Net	%	Net	%
United States	+1,796,000	+1.2%	+1,757,000	+1.4%
New York State	+89,100	+0.9%	+84,400	+1.1%
Albany-Schenectady-Troy	+900	+0.2%	0	0.0%
Binghamton	+400	+0.4%	+300	+0.4%
Buffalo-Niagara Falls	-3,500	-0.6%	-3,900	-0.8%
Dutchess-Putnam	+500	+0.3%	+400	+0.3%
Elmira	-600	-1.6%	-500	-1.6%
Glens Falls	+900	+1.6%	+800	+1.7%
Ithaca	+2,600	+4.1%	+2,500	+4.5%
Kingston	+400	+0.6%	+600	+1.2%
Nassau-Suffolk	+8,800	+0.7%	+8,500	+0.7%
New York City	+48,900	+1.1%	+48,100	+1.3%
Orange-Rockland-Westchester	+6,200	+0.9%	+5,800	+1.0%
Rochester	-3,300	-0.6%	-3,100	-0.7%
Syracuse	+1,400	+0.4%	+1,100	+0.4%
Utica-Rome	+800	+0.6%	+1,000	+1.0%
Watertown-Fort Drum	+600	+1.4%	+500	+1.6%
Non-metro Counties	+2,700	+0.5%	+2,600	+0.7%

Job highlights since September 2016:

Eleven metro areas in New York State added private sector jobs over the past year, with the most rapid employment growth in these areas:
- Ithaca (+4.5%)
- Glens Falls (+1.7%)
- Watertown-Fort Drum (+1.6%)
- New York City (+1.3%)
- Kingston (+1.2%)
Over the past year, three metropolitan areas in the state – Elmira (-1.6%), Buffalo-Niagara Falls (-0.8%) and Rochester (-0.7%) – lost private sector jobs.

Change in jobs by major industry sector: September 2016 – September 2017

1) Jobs data (not seasonally adjusted):

The table below compares the over-the-year change in jobs by major industry sector in New York State occurring between September 2016 and September 2017.

Change in Jobs by Major Industry Sector
September 2016 – September 2017
Sectors With Job Gains:
*Educational and health services is in the private sector. Government includes public education and public health services.
Educational & Health Services*	+54,400
Professional & Business Services	+34,000
Leisure & Hospitality	+16,800
Other Services	+5,800
Government*	+4,700
Construction	+2,400
Natural Resources & Mining	+100

Sectors With Job Losses:
Manufacturing	-15,700
Information	-6,900
Trade, Transportation & Utilities	-5,900
Financial Activities	-600

Highlights among New York State sectors with job gains since September 2016:

Private educational and health services added the most jobs (+54,400) of any major industry sector over the past year. Sector job gains were mostly in health care and social assistance (+46,400), especially ambulatory health care (+23,100).
From September 2016 to September 2017, the second largest employment increase occurred in professional and business services (+34,000). Most over-the-year job gains in this sector were found in professional, scientific and technical services (+18,600) and administrative and support services (+13,900).
The third largest increase in jobs over the past year occurred in leisure and hospitality, which grew by 16,800. Sector gains were centered in accommodation and food services (+14,300), especially food services and drinking places (+11,100).
Other services had the fourth largest increase in jobs (+5,800) between September 2016 and September 2017. Over-the-year sector gains were concentrated in personal and laundry services (+2,300) and religious, grant-making and civic organizations (+2,100).

Highlights among New York State sectors with job losses since September 2016:

Over the past 12 months, manufacturing lost the most jobs (-15,700) of any major industry sector in New York State. Over-the-year sector losses were concentrated in durable goods (-13,000), especially computers and electronic products (-3,100) and fabricated metal products (-2,200).
Between September 2016 and September 2017, the second largest employment decrease in New York State occurred in information, which lost 6,900 jobs. Sector job losses over the past year were greatest in telecommunications (-2,900) and motion picture and sound recording (-1,500).

Unemployment Insurance Benefits: September 2017

1) Regular Unemployment Insurance:

For New York State, during the week that included September 12, 2017, there were 99,716 people (including 90,363 who live in the State) who received benefits under the regular Unemployment Insurance program.

In September 2017, New York State residents who received Unemployment Insurance benefits made up 19% of the total unemployed.

Note: The responsibility for the production of monthly estimates of state and metro area nonfarm employment by industry moved from the Division of Research and Statistics to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), starting with the March 2011 estimates. More detailed information on the change is available on the BLS web site.

Many economic data series have a seasonal pattern, which means they tend to occur at the same time each year (e.g., retail jobs usually increase in December). Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing seasonal effects from a data series. This is done to simplify the data so that they may be more easily interpreted and help to reveal true underlying trends. Seasonal adjustment permits comparisons of data from one month to data from any other month.

Labor force statistics, including the unemployment rate, for New York and every other state are based on statistical regression models specified by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In New York State, payroll jobs data by industry come from a monthly survey of 18,000 business establishments. Jobs data by industry do not include agricultural workers, the self-employed, unpaid family workers or domestic workers in private households.

See State and Area Job Data (opens in new window)
See Labor Market Overview (opens in new window)
See Jobs and Unemployment Fact Sheet (opens in new window)

The YUGE job losses Trump is ignoring: retail workers

David Posnett — Tue, 25 Apr 2017 20:28:30 +0000

Originally posted in Daily Kos

By Sher Watts Spooner

Sunday Apr 23, 2017 · 10:20 AM EDT

Malls across the U.S., like this mall in Milford, Connecticut, are growing emptier and emptier. Which is bad news for those employed by the mall’s stores.

This is not a good time to have a job in the retail industry.

If you’ve been to a shopping mall recently, you may have noticed that many storefronts are empty. Stores that are still open aren’t crowded, and there are plenty of spaces in the parking lot.

About one in every 10 American workers works in the retail industry, and one out of every three retail employees works part time. A retail job is the first job experience for about one-third of Americans, so cutbacks block entry into the job market. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 15.9 million people worked in the U.S. retail industry in January 2017, but that number has been shrinking. Since October 2016, 89,000 retail workers have lost their jobs. The most recent BLS jobs report in early April showed that 30,000 retail workers lost jobs in March—about equal to the number of retail jobs lost in February. The March decrease alone was enough to lower the job growth numbers to just 98,000. The two-month job loss was the worst retail job loss since the Great Recession in 2009.

Donald Trump loves to whine about jobs lost in the disappearing coal industry and in manufacturing. He brags that he will bring back coal and factory jobs—a promise he’s unlikely to keep, even as his executive orders weaken industry regulations. But lost retail jobs hit America much harder, and he’s silent about those. Those 89,000 people who lost retail jobs are more than the entirety—53,000—of those employed in the coal industry. While the coal, manufacturing, and retail industries have all suffered losses because of globalization and technological advances, the job losses aren’t always equal. Department stores have lost 18 times more workers than coal mining since 2001. Linda McMahon, the former World Wresting Entertainment CEO who now heads the Small Business Administration, is more concerned about trashing regulations than measuring the impact of retail job loss.

When retail workers lose their jobs, that affects a lot more than the workers—it affects their families and their communities. The cascading downward spiral means fewer dollars in families’ pockets, fewer dollars spent at other stores, fewer stores to spend money at, and fewer dollars to buy food and to pay mortgages and rent. An estimated two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product comes from retail consumption. So store closings and openings can indicate how well the U.S. economy is doing overall.

Overall, BLS numbers show that nearly half of all retail workers are female, and nearly 75 percent of the work force in clothing stores is female. Some 12 percent of all retail employees are African American, six percent are Asian American, and 17 percent are Latino. Those percentages are much higher than percentages in the same demographic groups holding jobs in the coal industry and in manufacturing, which is much more white and male.

But those women and minorities aren’t being interviewed by the news media as the people the economy left behind.

A recent story in The Atlantic laid out three possible reasons why retail job losses remain hidden under the political and media radar: geography, demographics, and nostalgia.

How has the retail bloodletting been so much quieter than the decline in mining and manufacturing? There are several plausible explanations. First, mining and manufacturing jobs are geographically concentrated. Sixty percent of coal-mining jobs are in just four states: West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming. Retail is spread more evenly across the country, so there are “mining towns,” which politicians can visit and photographers can capture and where the pain runs especially deep, in a way there are not “mall towns.” Second, as SlateChief Political Correspondent Jamelle Bouie tweeted, the demographics of a job can determine its political salience. Coal mining is still 95 percent white and 95 percent male. Department store workers are 40 percent minority and just 40 percent male. The emphasis on work that is white, male, and burly may represent an implicit bias against the working class of the modern service economy, which is more diverse and female. Third, mining and manufacturing jobs feed into a national nostalgia for the mid-century economy, with its unionized workforce, economic growth, and high pay for men without much education.

A story from Slate by that same Jamelle Bouie makes the same argument:

In terms of attention, [coal miners] punch far above their weight class. They constitute a small portion of the American workforce, and yet, elite journalists devote countless words to their lives and communities, while politicians use them and their priorities as a platform for performing authenticity. For those in and around politics, one’s connection to “real America” is often judged by one’s proximity to these workers and their concerns. Which raises a question: Why them and not those retail workers who face an equally (if not more) precarious future? …

Retail work in malls and shopping centers and department stores is largely work done by women. Of the nearly 6 million people who work in those fields in stores like Sears, Michaels, Target, J.C. Penney, and Payless, close to 60 percent are women. … A substantial portion of these workers—roughly 40 percent across the different kinds of retail—are black, Latino, or Asian American. …

Work is gendered and it is racialized. What work matters is often tied to who performs it. It is no accident that those professions dominated by white men tend to bring the most prestige, respect, and pay, while those dominated by women—and especially women of color—are often ignored, disdained, and undercompensated.

Many of us likely had a retail job at some point in our lives. Maybe we worked at a corner mom-and-pop shop or worked weekend and evening shifts at a store in a nearby mall. My own experience was peddling popcorn behind the candy counter at a mall multiplex. The pay was barely above minimum wage, but at least I got to see movies for free.

Sears Roebuck and Co. used to be the biggest name in retail. It advertised itself as the store “where America shops.” It once had a booming catalog business that sold mail-order house kits and was where much of America bought appliances and tools. Now, with competition from big-box stores (also not doing well) and online shopping, Sears is closing stores and might be on the verge of collapse: The company lost $2 billion in 2016, and sales dropped 10.3 percent in the fourth quarter, when many stores finally sell enough to be in the black. According to an NPR story:

Despite its merger with Kmart in 2005, Sears has consistently lost millions of dollars each quarter.

The retailer has closed hundreds of stores, slashed jobs and sold off key assets like the Lands’ End clothing line and its legendary Craftsman brand — although both brands continue to be sold at Sears. Independent retail analyst Sucharita Mulpuru says these changes haven’t worked.

“There are just so many onerous forces relating to competition,” she says. “I think that no matter what they do, they are fighting a losing battle.”

And what of Sears workers? The generous employee discount program is gone, replaced with a “point system.” Some 250 employees at Sears’ corporate offices were laid off last year, and 150 openings went unfilled. If you worked in sales and your store closed, you’re out of luck.

Of course, Sears isn’t alone. In a trend a story in Business Insider dubs the “retail apocalypse,” more than 3,500 stores are expected to close in the next few months of 2017. It’s being described as “one of the biggest waves of retail closures in decades.”

This might have been avoided if malls weren’t overbuilt to begin with. The Business Insider story reports that the United States “has 23.5 square feet of retail space per person, compared with 16.4 square feet in Canada and 11.1 square feet in Australia, the next two countries with the most retail space per capita.” When a major anchor store in a mall closes, smaller stores are soon to follow. “Nearly a third of shopping malls are at risk of dying off as a result of store closures,” the story added. What do those workers do then?

Retail workers aren’t highly paid. Some, especially those in higher-end clothing stores, are paid on commission. They don’t have pensions or 401(k) plans, and they don’t earn enough to save for retirement. As the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, the annual median salary for a retail employee was $22,040 in 2015, and the annual median hourly wage was $10.60.

And they’re not getting very many raises, either. As an AP story puts it: “Average hourly earnings for retail employees, including managers, has inched up just 1.1 percent over the past year, compared with a 2.7 percent average increase for all U.S. workers.”

There are unions that represent retail workers, but they don’t have much power—or membership. The Retail, Wholesale, and Department Store Union is a semi-autonomous subsidiary of the United Food and Commercial Workers union. But union membership for retail workers has dropped from a high of 15 percent of all retail workers in the 1970s to less than five percent today—one of the lowest rates of unionization in the entire economy.

The bottoming out of the retail market and retail jobs isn’t surprising to anyone who orders merchandise online. E-commerce has grown faster than delivery of packages by drones. According to a story in The New York Times:

Between 2010 and 2014, e-commerce grew by an average of $30 billion annually. Over the past three years, average annual growth has increased to $40 billion. …

This transformation is hollowing out suburban shopping malls, bankrupting longtime brands, and leading to staggering job losses. …

The job losses in retail could have unexpected social and political consequences, as huge numbers of low-wage retail employees become economically unhinged, just as manufacturing workers did in recent decades.

Even Black Friday, the retail sales extravaganza on the day and weekend after Thanksgiving when stories traditionally showed profits, has seen decreases. Figures for 2016 showed that 99 million people shopped in brick-and-mortar stores, 3 million fewer than in 2015. Online shopping, on the other hand, went up, even as people didn’t wait for Cyber Monday: 108 million people shopped online over the Thanksgiving weekend, about 5 million more than the previous year.

As retail workers in brick-and-mortar stores have lost jobs, hiring has picked up in online warehouses for companies like Amazon. But there are too few of those jobs to make up the difference, and many of those jobs are quickly getting automated.

“Until now, retail workers—unlike the car-making and coal-mining industries—have made little political splash,” said a story on Axios Media. “Look for that to change.”

How did Europe avoid the loss of manufacturing jobs?

David Posnett — Wed, 25 Jan 2017 02:11:52 +0000

This from Rajeev Pillay,

General Partner  Abacus International Management L.L.C.  ”For Development Solutions You Can Count On”

The rust belt is hurting. So is coal country and so are so many former manufacturing communities in the heartland of America. If there is a single underlying cause for the anti-establishment anger that led to the elevation of Donald Trump to the Presidency, it is the loss of well-paying jobs in parts of the country that were heavily dependent on mature manufacturing and extractive industries.

This is not a sudden development. Rather it is part of a trend over the past 30 years that has seen a gradual and inexorable decline in the real wages in the manufacturing sector as industries have matured. Over time, workers who lived a comfortable life have seen their wages erode. Workers have had to accept cuts in their wages and benefits or have seen their jobs migrate abroad to countries with lower wage structures. While in the past, manufacturing workers earned a wage significantly higher than the U.S. average, by 2013 the average factory worker made 7.7 percent below the median wage for all occupations. By end-2104, more than 600,000 manufacturing workers made just $9.60 per hour or less. More than 1.5 million manufacturing workers—one out of every four— made $11.91 or less[1]. Many workers have to hold two or more jobs in order to make ends meet.

Despite this, manufacturing plants have had to move to emerging economies, many of which have average wages that are still considerably lower than those in the U.S. Unable to expand their markets sufficiently rapidly, bottom line profits have been boosted by rapid rises in productivity either through the introduction of new technologies on assembly lines or a reduction of labor costs. The reduction in labor costs has typically been achieved through massive layoffs or a reduction in wages and in some instances, both. It is fairly clear that this is a secular trend for the nation as a whole with a wholesale loss of jobs in traditional manufacturing; clothing, heavy machinery, furniture, automotive products and other industries that require only moderately skilled workers.

By contrast, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and a few other developed economies in Europe have fared quite differently. In 2013 average hourly pay in manufacturing in Germany stood at $48.98, one third higher than in the $36.34 in the United States. Yet, the German manufacturing sector remained relatively stable between 1997 and 2013 in the face of competition from China, while the US lost 5.4 million manufacturing jobs during the same period[2].

Why is this? This is largely because governments in these countries have understood that in order to maintain high wages and to continue to grow, they would have to migrate towards a high tech, knowledge, and service based economy. Manufacturing in the high tech space requires fiscal incentives to grow the sector, a higher level of skill, access to capital and new and extensive investment in essential infrastructure.

President Obama understood the challenge very well. Although he was blocked at every turn by a hostile Congress, he understood that macro policies would need to address the structural challenge. He was committed to moving the country towards green technologies that were good for the environment, but equally importantly would place the US in the driver seat in the expansion of new and innovative areas that will underpin industry and the economy of the future. He encouraged high tech entrepreneurs to participate in the transformation. Furthermore, he was committed to investing government resources into the infrastructure required to support the rapid growth of clean energy and green technologies. Finally, he was committed to improving public secondary education and access to tertiary education by making it less expensive and providing new and less expensive ways for students to finance their studies.

Hillary Clinton too, to her credit, had a fully fleshed out raft of macro policies[3] ranging from investments in infrastructure, encouraging clean energy (making the US a “clean energy superpower”), improving trade policies, investing in computer sciences and STEM education, creating a “lifelong learning system that is better tailored to 21^st century jobs”, increasing access to capital for small businesses and start-ups focusing on young entrepreneurs and the deferment of student loan payments[4].

Although he has come to office promising to “Put America to Work Again” as a convenient corollary to “Make America Great Again”, it is very difficult to understand what Donald Trump’s policies for creating jobs and expanding the US economy are. So far he seems to have focused on doing individual, company-specific deals on a micro-level to save jobs on a case-by-case basis. Such deals save relatively few jobs at relatively high cost in the short-term, but will fail to stem the loss of well-paying jobs in the long run unless complemented by sound macro policies.

Much has been made of the Carrier deal. United Technologies, through its Carrier subsidiary manufactures air conditioners in this country. President Trump initially claimed that he had reached a deal to save some 1,100 jobs at the Carrier plant in Indiana, preventing them from being moved across the border to Mexico. This was only just over half of the total of 2,100 jobs that were supposedly under threat at the plant. The actual number saved, however, was even smaller because 300 of the jobs were white-collar positions and were never slated for relocation[5]. The total number of jobs saved was, in practice, therefore, just 800, or about 44 percent of the total 1,800 that would otherwise have been lost. How did he manage to save these jobs? With the help of his Vice-President, Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana at the time, $7 million in State tax breaks were scheduled to be paid to Carrier over 10 years, or $700,000 per year. That is $875 per worker per year for each of the 800 jobs saved[6]. No doubt once the tax breaks wear off, all things being equal, the jobs would once again more likely than not, be transferred abroad. Subsidies are expensive, distort markets and work only in the short run. In fact, Carrier’s parent company, United Technologies, has since 1993, received 819 state and federal subsidies worth a total of $881 million, or about $38.1 million a year for 23 years. That doesn’t count 10 major loans worth $46 million over the same time[7]. That is just one company.

Although his policies have never been spelled out, President Trump has claimed that he will negotiate more favorable trade regimes for the US with individual countries. Where he sees inequities, he will slap on tariffs barriers to render goods manufactured overseas more expensive and less competitive.

None of the above are policies. They are ad hoc tactics, geared to paying to media, and are intended to gain brownie points in the political arena. While he may develop a more sensible raft of policies in the long run, as presently stated, Trump’s approach if perpetuated will keep the American economy mired in mature, slowly growing industries, raise the level of state and federal debt and make retail products more expensive domestically, creating even greater financial hardships for the average American in the long run.

[1] Ruckelshaus Catherine and Sarah Leberstein, Manufacturing Low Pay: Declining Wages in the Jobs That Built America’s Middle Class, National Employment Law Project, November 2014.

[2] See Economic Policy Institute at http://www.epi.org/publication/high-wages-arent-to-blame-for-the-decline-of-u-s-manufacturing/

[3] https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/jobs/

[4] https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/technology-and-innovation/

[5] ABC News, Julia Jacob, 300 Carrier Jobs Trump Touts for Indiana Were Never Moving to Mexico, December 2, 2016.

[6] Forbes, Eric Sherman, Trump’s Carrier Deal Means Nothing for Future Jobs, December 4, 2016. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2016/12/04/trumps-carrier-deal-means-nothing-for-future-jobs/#36f10f034c7b)

[7] http://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=united-technologies