myths – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

Debunking Anti-Vaxxers

David Posnett — Sat, 18 Jan 2020 15:32:39 +0000

Worth watching:

https://portside.org/video/2020-01-17/debunking-anti-vaxxers

Math not Myths: Democrats Win When their Voters are Inspired to Turn out!

David Posnett — Thu, 20 Jul 2017 10:28:39 +0000

Great piece in the Nation: July 18, 2017. If there are 7 million Obama-to-Trump voters, why didn’t Trump’s vote total increase by 7 million?

Democrats Are Trying to Win the 2018 Midterms in All the Wrong Ways, By Steve Phillips

It is quite possible that Democrats are going to spend nearly $1 billion trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist. By buying into a myth about why they lost in 2016, they are ignoring the underlying math about what really happened—misspending huge amounts of money, while setting themselves up to lose again in the critical contests to come.

Many progressive politicians and pundits have bought into the notion that millions of people who had voted for Barack Obama in 2012 defected from the Democrats and voted for Donald Trump in 2016. The strategic premise flowing from this conclusion—that the Democrats can prevail in the congressional and presidential races to come by winning those voters back—is influencing how tens of millions of dollars are being spent and will continue to shape the spending of hundreds of millions of dollars in the midterm elections next year. But as my colleagues at Democracy in Color and I point out in the new report “Return of the Majority Progress Report: Another Billion Dollar Blunder?,” the premise driving this strategy is ill-founded and incorrect.

The popularity and persistence of the myth was encapsulated in a recent New York Times column by Thomas Edsall, “The Democratic Party Is in Worse Shape Than You Thought.” Edsall devoted considerable attention to “Obama-to-Trump” voters and cited estimates based on exit polls in which voters were asked whom they’d voted for in 2012 and 2016. That polling quantified the ranks of said voters as ranging from 6.7 million to 9.2 million people. The viewpoint has been popularized to the point where it is now accepted as fact and drives major Democratic decisions such as where to hold the Senate Democratic caucus retreat (West Virginia), to whom to feature in the response to the State of the Union (white people in a Kentucky diner), to how to spend $19 million in advertising in the Georgia special election (targeting Republicans rather than rallying Democrats). The primary problem with this approach is that the math underlying the myth is perplexing, at best, and just flat wrong at worst.

The inaccurate arithmetic is most evident when looking at what happened in Wisconsin, one of the three narrowly decided states that led to Clinton’s losing the Electoral College despite prevailing handily in the national popular vote. The conclusion that large numbers of Obama voters switched their allegiance to the Republican is undercut by the fact that Trump got fewer votes in Wisconsin than Mitt Romney did four years earlier. If Trump got a big infusion of previously Democratic votes, why did the Republican vote total go down? But look even more closely, at county-level data. In the 23 counties that flipped from Democratic in 2012 to Republican in 2016, the data show that it is likely that there were just as many Obama-to-third-party voters as there were Obama-to-Trump voters (an increase of 23,117 third-party votes, as compared with 20,662 additional Republican votes in those counties). And the biggest problem in Wisconsin was the fact that 60,000 fewer people voted in heavily black Milwaukee, contributing to Clinton’s losing the state by 23,000 votes.

The myth also lacks mathematical support in a state like Florida, where there was an actual surge for Trump, with him picking up 450,000 more voters than Romney received. That increase, however, didn’t come from disaffected Democrats. Clinton got more votes in 2016 than Obama did in 2012. What happened in Florida is that large numbers of whites who sat out 2012 rallied to Trump’s racial-solidarity appeals and came out in significantly larger numbers.

While the data from Wisconsin and Florida undermine the myth about what happened in specific strategic states, the aggregate data throw the entire premise into question. The most inconvenient fact for the proponents of the Obama-to-Trump migration theory is that Clinton got very nearly the same number of votes as Obama did nationally. It’d be like being told someone has taken 10 percent of the money out of your bank account, but when you check your balance it shows you have the exact same amount of money. If 10 percent of the funds went away, where did the 10 percent come from to backfill the account?

The other problematic point for the 7 million-lost-votes figure is that Trump’s total vote number increased only by 2 million over what Romney secured in 2012. If there are 7 million Obama-to-Trump voters, why didn’t Trump’s vote total increase by 7 million? It’s conceivable that a ton of Romney voters defected from Trump and were replaced by Obama-to-Trump voters, but there has been precious little analysis of that possibility. The focus for most Democrats begins and ends with wooing the Obama-to-Trump voter.

The numbers that aren’t in dispute are the figures for black voters and Stein voters. Recently released Census data shows that African-American voter turnout dropped precipitously, falling below the rate of the 2004 election. In Pennsylvania, according to national exit-poll data, the black turnout dropped by 137,000 people, and Clinton lost by 44,000 votes. In Michigan, the problem was Obama-to-Stein voters, with Stein getting 30,000 more voters than she did in 2012, and the Democrats losing the state by just 11,000 votes.

Certainly some voters did defect from Obama to Trump, and, conversely, some Romney voters moved to either Clinton or Johnson, complicating the calculations all around. Digging into data is important, but, unfortunately, that’s not where Democratic leaders are focusing their analytical attention. Rather than accurately assess the numbers, they have let the myth take on the status of legend, and tens of millions of dollars are being allocated based on faulty data. Perhaps the most pernicious part of the myth is that it reinforces the absolutely incorrect

Perhaps the most pernicious part of the myth is that it reinforces the absolutely incorrect mind-set that progressives are in the minority in America. Democrats won the popular vote—and not by a little, with Clinton’s 3 million vote margin surpassing the largest figure ever recorded by someone who didn’t win the Electoral College. In the critical states that enabled the Electoral College loss—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida—the progressive vote splintered, allowing Trump to slip through with less than a majority of the votes in each of those states. This minority mindset leads to timid tactics and tepid politics that are no match for the audacity of the right’s racist, xenophobic assault on multiracial America that is occurring every day. Fear of alienating the unicorn of the white swing voter mutes Democratic responses when the only proper response to what is happening in America is unapologetically fighting back by every means available—pushing for impeachment, conducting sit-ins to block the buses deporting people, and issuing full-throated denunciations of a judicial system that sanctions the police murders of unarmed black people. As Obama’s successful elections showed, Democrats win only when their voters are inspired to turn out in large numbers, and a bold, courageous, hopeful platform is essential to generating voter enthusiasm. In order to carry ourselves with the confidence to act with that kind of decisiveness requires the conviction that we are in fact the majority of people in America. If we look at math and not myths, we can straighten our backs, raise our voices, and do what is necessary to bring about the return of the majority in America.

This minority mindset leads to timid tactics and tepid politics that are no match for the audacity of the right’s racist, xenophobic assault on multiracial America that is occurring every day. Fear of alienating the unicorn of the white swing voter mutes Democratic responses when the only proper response to what is happening in America is unapologetically fighting back by every means available—pushing for impeachment, conducting sit-ins to block the buses deporting people, and issuing full-throated denunciations of a judicial system that sanctions the police murders of unarmed black people. As Obama’s successful elections showed, Democrats win only when their voters are inspired to turn out in large numbers, and a bold, courageous, hopeful platform is essential to generating voter enthusiasm. In order to carry ourselves with the confidence to act with that kind of decisiveness requires the conviction that we are in fact the majority of people in America. If we look at math and not myths, we can straighten our backs, raise our voices, and do what is necessary to bring about the return of the majority in America.

Steve Phillips TwitterSteve Phillips is a national political leader, civil-rights lawyer, author, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, and the founder and editor in chief of Democracy in Color, a multimedia platform on race and politics. He is the author of the New York Times best seller, Brown Is the New White: How a Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority (New Press). He is a regular contributor to The Nation.

Smoking doesn’t kill (Mike Pence) ???

David Posnett — Tue, 24 Jan 2017 18:22:42 +0000

As published in Business Insider, Jan. 21, 2017, 10:00 AM, http://www.businessinsider.com/mike-pence-smoking-doesnt-kill-2017-1 Mike Pence wrote an op-ed article in 2000 stating

“Despite the hysteria from the political class and the media, smoking doesn’t kill. In fact, 2 out of every three smokers does not die from a smoking related illness and 9 out of ten smokers do not contract lung cancer.”

If 2/3 don’t die of smoking related illness, then it follows that 1/3 do die of smoking related illness and that translates into 0.5 Million every year in the US. Smoking is the leading cause of preventable death in the US and it shortens your expected life-span by 10 years.

I recommend that you don’t use Mike Pence as your source on medical or scientific matters. Use the CDC website instead: https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/

David Posnett MD

The ACA seems to be working…

David Posnett — Mon, 24 Mar 2014 03:32:16 +0000

Robert Reich discusses the ACA which seems to be working. But there is a lot that needs fixing. Above all what needs fixing is the oft deceitful misinformation. Read on here! Contributed by Arlene Coulter.

Confused by Obamacare ? For Suffolk County Residents, read on…

David Posnett — Sun, 09 Feb 2014 20:46:54 +0000

Confused? Not sure how it may benefit you? Not sure how much it will cost? If you are anywhere near Southampton, Riverhead or Hampton Bays, here are 3 seminars coming up: Layman’s terms. Resource guide to local enrollers.

Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:30pm to 8:30pm
Rogers Memorial Library, Morris Meeting Room, 91 Coopers Farm Rd, Southampton, NY 11968. (631) 283 0774, ext 523

Thu Mar 6, 2014 6:00pm to 8:00pm
Riverhead Free Library, 330 Court Street, Riverhead, NY 11902; call (631) 727 3228 or email contact@riverheadlibrary.com

Tues Mar 25, 2014 6:30pm to 8:30pm
Hampton Bays Public Library, 52 Ponquogue Ave., Hampton Bays, NY 11946, call (631) 728 6241 or email hbaylib2suffolk.lib.ny.us

The Costs of Obamacare Insurance to YOU.

David Posnett — Sat, 08 Feb 2014 20:30:43 +0000

I have been hearing horror stories about prohibitively expensive Obamacare insurance quotes. So together with my friend Sheila, we logged on to the NY State Official Health Plan Marketplace and pretended to be shopping for insurance right here in Suffolk County.

Note (and this is important) the cost varies depending on where you reside. The different insurance carriers have different quotes of course. And most importantly the cost varies according to your taxable income. Your premium should be reduced (advanced Tax Credit) if your taxable income is below $45,960 for a single individual, or below $94,200 for a family of four.

Here are several scenarios (all of them for a gold plan, annual deductible $600 per person, or $1200 per family) and applicable to Suffolk County residents. The quoted premiums are for the family and represent the cheapest quote. Make sure that your doctor accepts the insurance plan you choose!

Taxable Household income $75,000
2 adults no dependent children: Monthly premium for the family $877 + (depending on Plan). NO CREDITS

Taxable Household income $75,000
2 adults and 2 dependent children: Monthly premium for the family $740 + (depending on Plan). Advanced Tax Credit $137

Taxable Household income $50,000
2 adults and 2 dependent children: Monthly premium for the family $427+ (depending on Plan). Advanced Tax Credit $450

Taxable Household income $25,000
1 adult and no dependent children: Monthly premium $217 + (depending on Plan) – Advanced Tax Credit $221

Taxable Household income $14,000
1 adult and no dependent children: Monthly premium $0 – medicaid

This does not sound too bad at all.

Opting out of Medicare Expansion is costing lives: over 7,100 deaths nation wide!

David Posnett — Thu, 30 Jan 2014 18:35:29 +0000

Interesting study (by a Harvard medical student). It is an estimate of the total numbers of people that will be covered by insurance with/without medicare expansion. They they use prior estimates of how non-coverage translates in to real death rates.

For example

NY (which has opted in):

currently uninsured 2 185 195
projected uninsured with ACA 1 122 130 (49% decline in uninsured)

PA (which has opted out)

currently uninsured 1 520 622
projected uninsured with ACA 1 229 171 (19.2% decline in uninsured)

How Many Young Invincibles does the ACA need?

David Posnett — Mon, 27 Jan 2014 19:58:45 +0000

What numbers really are needed to make the ACA sustainable? This is a big concern of Rep. Tim Bishop’s and others who fear that too few healthy young people paying in to offset older, sicker enrollees, may drive premiums higher next year. The doom and gloom over fairly low numbers of young adults enrolling in the exchanges is exaggerated, says research by the Kaiser Family Foundation, a leading non-partisan think tank on health policy.

Here’s their analysis on how many enrollees are needed to make the math work and keep premiums reasonable. The number is lower than we think. Contributed by Liz McMillan.

Republican Converts to Obamacare

David Posnett — Thu, 23 Jan 2014 21:02:33 +0000

It is strange how I have been hearing about right wing oponents of Obamacare. When they get really ill, and the situation is life threatening, some of them convert to Obamacare supporters. Its interesting to read these stories (I think). Here is a story about a young Republican operative with testicular cancer!

And meet Butch Matthews from Arkansas too.

Bail-out of the Insurance Industry?

David Posnett — Tue, 21 Jan 2014 18:11:21 +0000

The Huffington Post has a nice Wendell Potter article addressing how exactly we “bail out” the insurance industry.

The Pot Is Calling the Kettle Black in This Feigned Obamacare Outrage

Here are the highlights:
… In many cases, insurers refused to sell coverage at any price to prospective customers with preexisting conditions. That’s a big reason why the number of uninsured Americans had reached nearly 50 million when Congress passed the reform law.
So it wasn’t the least bit surprising that the first few million who have signed up for coverage since the exchanges opened on Oct. 1 skew older than many expected. People who have been denied coverage for years are far more motivated to get insurance …

In anticipation of this, drafters of the reform law established a $25-billion risk fund to insulate insurers from big losses during the first three years…

Yes, $25 billion is a lot of money, but it is pocket change compared to the enormous amount of taxpayer dollars that have been flowing to private insurance companies for nearly three decades to keep them in the Medicare Advantage program, which has had the unwavering support of Republicans…

We’re talking a lot of money here. In 2012 alone, the GAO calculated that the federal government spent about $135 billion on the Medicare Advantage program….

Interestingly, but not surprisingly, there was no mention of that, or any reference at all to the Medicare Advantage program, the biggest champion of which are Republicans, in The Weekly Standard‘s “bailout” story last week. If they are sincere in their alarm that Obamacare might reward private insurers with an extra $25 billion between now and the end of 2016, they should be apoplectic about the ongoing bailout known as the Medicare Advantage program.