Trade – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

“I am a Tariff Man” and Credit for the Stock Market

David Posnett — Wed, 26 Dec 2018 21:49:12 +0000

US stock markets fell sharply on Tuesday as investors lost faith in a trade truce between the US and China that had been negotiated by Donald Trump at last week’s G20 summit.

On September 8th, 2018 I wrote:

“It is astounding that Republicans, like Lee Zeldin, are claiming credit for a soaring stock market. They will mention the tax give-away to businesses (thus increasing profits), the abolition of regulations and hard-nosed trade wars with allies and others. A bull run based on borrowed money and a soaring national deficit seems dangerous. Add the inflation expected from the trade war. Accordingly, the Warren Buffett Indicator predicts a stock market crash in 2018! Perhaps Zeldin and company, should also be credited with the crash, when it happens?”

Well guess what, it is happening!

These are the headlines all over the internet “Dow dives 600 points to below 22,000, S&P 500 enters bear market — worst Christmas Eve ever“

Now Mr. Zeldin, please own up and claim the credit that is rightfully yours. Your pal, Donald Trump, knows this is bad news.

“Trump’s aides have described the president as obsessed with the stock market’s performance, which he sees as a numerical validation of his personal performance. Trump spent much of late 2017 and early 2018 cheering big gains, which he claimed were stimulated by his presidency — in particular, his moves to cut taxes and roll back regulations.” Lee Zeldin followed his lead.

As recently as July 2018, Zeldin took credit in the Riverhead Local: “With our markets hitting historic highs, retirement and college savings accounts are as well, making it a little easier for Long Islanders who invest with the hopes of providing a better life for themselves and their families.”

He also liked to tweet about this:

As stocks drop, Trump fears he’s losing his best argument for reelection. So should Lee!

A Second Chance

David Posnett — Sat, 14 Apr 2018 11:32:48 +0000

Published as a Letter to the Editor in The East Hampton Star, 4/12/18

Political Crisis

East Hampton

April 9, 2018

To the Editor:

It’s past time to end the scapegoating: Hillary was too unlikeable, Bernie was too far left, the pollsters made us think it was in the bag, the media gave Trump endless coverage, and on and on.

While there’s plenty of blame to go around, let’s face facts: With the possibility of electing the most glaringly unfit, mentally unstable person ever to run for president, much of the electorate chose to quibble with the alternative or sulk that their preferred candidate wasn’t selected, or vote their resentments instead of their reason, or just be lazy and disengaged. The failure of the American public to take the responsibilities of citizenship seriously has plunged us into the ongoing political crisis that is the Trump presidency.

There may not be do-overs, but there are second chances. If we want to defend our democracy and protect this country, every one of us has to do our part and vote. In November, vote out Lee Zeldin, who supports and encourages a president run amok, and vote in a Democrat who will work to rein in a man whose dangerous ignorance knows no bounds.

Sincerely,

CAROL DEISTLER

Trade, Trump, and Zeldin

David Posnett — Thu, 12 Apr 2018 23:42:45 +0000

Published in The East Hampton Star 4/12/18

By Perry Gershon

Any trade policy should put American workers and small businesses first. But President Trump’s attempt to launch a trade war with China, backed by Representative Lee Zeldin, hurts American workers, farmers, and businesses.

Unfair Chinese labor practices subsidize production and
hurt United States workers in the process. The equivalent
of slave wages is paid to produce Chinese electronic
components, and American importation of these
products condones this practice. We should be trying to
correct Chinese theft of intellectual property, currency
devaluation, overproduction and dumping, subsidies for
state-run enterprises, and violations of basic labor standards. Tariffs may be used as leverage in the fight, but labor rights are not even mentioned in Trump’s goals and agenda.

Trump’s trade war will cause higher prices on goods, which will hurt U.S. consumers, but it will also affect American farmers and manufacturers since there will be less international consumption of our products. Among others, our Long Island wine producers will be directly affected. Trump threatens to tax Chinese goods, and China retaliates by threatening to tax our goods.

Trump’s defenders and enablers declare that no tariffs have been levied, so this is really just a step to reaching a “fair” deal. But U.S. agricultural exports, on which our farmers rely, are in jeopardy. Buying decisions are made in advance, and plans will assume that the threatened tariffs are a reality. Costs of steel and aluminum are already rising on just the potential for tariffs. This affects U.S. manufacturers such as Boeing and GM, as their material costs go up, and it will lead to rising consumer costs, lower sales, and less employment.

And it will affect light manufacturing here in Suffolk County.

Trump is imposing lots of pain and risking permanent damage on individual Americans for a long-term “greater good” of “freer” markets. But nowhere in the dialogue is there a demand or concern about unfair Chinese labor practices. Our leadership is ignoring the biggest problem in China altogether.

Representative Zeldin was interviewed this week singing Trump’s praises on trade. Zeldin called Trump “the ultimate dealmaker,” suggesting that new tariffs on China were part of a larger game plan “to be bringing down walls” between the two countries and create a better balance. Even if successful, this “deal” will result in higher prices to consumers, and Zeldin seems indifferent.

Is this worth risking the livelihood of American producers, who would be subject to Chinese tariffs? Trump is playing a high-stakes game of chicken with other people’s money, and Zeldin is cheering him on. Ignored are the declining values of people’s retirement accounts caused by a stock market made volatile by trade concerns. If Trump’s gamble fails, a lot of people will have been hurt unnecessarily.

Previous U.S. leaders have deemed this type of gamble unwise, but neither Trump nor Zeldin seems to care. Even if Trump wins and the Chinese back down, we must ask ourselves at what cost was victory achieved? And unfair Chinese labor practices remain unaddressed.

Going it alone is not the answer. We need an international coalition of our allies who are all directly affected by Chinese practices if we are going to properly combat the problem. The World Trade Organization may be dysfunctional, but international coalitions of affected nations can be assembled. The agenda must include trade, intellectual property, and fair labor practices.

Bluster is not going to solve the problem, and Zeldin should show more concern for his constituents than simply being among the president’s biggest defenders.

Perry Gershon is a Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives in New York’s First Congressional District. He lives in East Hampton.