turnout – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

Fair Elections for New York

David Posnett — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 14:39:49 +0000

New Yorkers deserve a responsive, accountable government. Voter turnout in New York is among the lowest in the nation, due in part to antiquated procedures for registration and voting that discourage participation. And our campaign finance system favors the wealthy over everyday, working New Yorkers. To tackle the crises we face in housing, living wage jobs, criminal justice, affordable health care, transportation, climate, fair taxes, and more, we must transform a campaign finance system that advantages the interests of the few over those of the many.

The shift in power in the New York State Senate—and a Governor and an Assembly prioritizing democratic reforms—presents an unprecedented opportunity to unrig the rules, strengthen our democracy, and incentivize elected officials to represent the values of the people of the state. A broad coalition of individuals and groups across New York is coming together to ensure that an overhaul of New York’s voting and campaign finance systems is the first order of business in the 2019 New York Legislature. This Fair Elections reform package would:

Increase the power of small donations. It is critical we implement a small donor matching system for state elections, including District Attorneys, like the successful programs in New York City and Connecticut. This gives everyday people the means to run for office and represent their communities relying on small donations instead of large checks. After the Supreme Court allowed unlimited, secret money to flow into our elections, small donor matching funds remains the most powerful way to combat the influence of big money. By matching small dollar donations 6-to-1, we can amplify the voices of women; of people of color; of the working and middle classes; and of any and all under-represented New Yorkers in the political process. Adequate enforcement as well as robust candidate support services would ensure the matching funds program runs smoothly.
Limit the influence of big money. The very wealthy and corporations shouldn’t be allowed to buy elections. We can put a check on their outsize influence by closing the “LLC loophole,” which allows mega donors to funnel limitless amounts to candidates, and by reducing New York’s unusually high contribution limits, among other improvements.
Make it easier, not harder, to vote. Including but not limited to automatic voter registration, early voting, same day registration, online voter registration, no excuse absentee voting, new party enrollment deadlines, pre-registration for 16- and 17-year-olds, full voting access for people with disabilities, and codify into law New York’s new policy to extend voting rights to all New Yorkers with past convictions.

Fair Elections Supporters

32BJ SEIU
50 West 93 Street Tenant Association
ACT18 Indivisible
Action Potluck
Advocates for Justice Chartered Attorneys
ALIGN
Alliance for Quality Education
American Pakistani Public Affairs Committee
The Arena
Association of Tenants of Lincoln Towers
Bend the Arc
The Black Institute
Brennan Center for Justice
Briarcliff – Ossining Indivisible
Bronx Progressives
Buffalo Democratic Socialists of America
Campaign for New York Health
Campaign Legal Center
Capital District Democratic Socialists of America
CCoHOPE Indivisible
Central Park Gardens Tenants Association
Chinese American Planning Council
Churches United For Fair Housing
Citizen Action New York
The Civics Center
Color of Change
Common Cause New York
Communities United for Police Reform Action Fund
Community Voices Heard
Concerned Citizens For Change
Cooper Square Committee
The Creative Resistance
Crown Heights Tenants Union
CWA District 1
Democracy Initiative
Democracy Matters
Demos
Downtown Women for Change
Dutchess County Progressive Action Alliance
Empire State Indivisible
Empire State Progressives
End Citizens United
Equal Citizens
Ethical Humanist Society of Long Island
Every Voice
Four Freedoms Democratic Club
The Gathering for Justice
Generation Citizen NY
Grassroots Action NY
Greater NYC for Change
Housing Works, Inc.
Human Services Council
Humanists of Long Island
Indivisible Beekman
Indivisible CD19 NY
Indivisible Harlem
Indivisible Nation BK
Indivisible Scarsdale
Indivisible the Fight Is On
Indivisible We Stand Upper West Side
Indivisible Westchester
Jews for Racial & Economic Justice
Labor-Religion Coalition of NYS
Long Island Activists
Long Island Civic Engagement Table
Long Island Jobs with Justice
Long Island Network for Change
Long Island Progressive Coalition
Long Island Together
Lower Hudson Valley Progressive Action Network
Make the Road New York
MAYDAY America
Metropolitan Council on Housing
Metro New York Health Care for All
Mid Suffolk Chapter of the National Organization for Women
Move Forward Staten Island
MoveOn.org
MPower Change
Muslims For Progress
Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)
New York City Loft Tenants
New York Civic Engagement Table
New York Communities for Change
New York Immigration Coalition
New York Lawyers for the Public Interest
New York Progressive Action Network
New York State Council of Churches
New York Public Interest Research Group (NYPIRG)
Nobody Leaves Mid-Hudson
No IDC NY
North American Climate, Conservation and Environment (NACCE)
Northeast NY Coalition for Occupational Safety & Health
Northwest Bronx Indivisible
NY19Votes
NYCAIC’s #HALTsolitary campaign
NYCD16 Indivisible
NYC Democratic Socialists of America
NYS NAACP Conference of Branches
NYS Nurses Association (NYSNA)
Our Revolution
Partnership for the Public Good
People For the American Way
The People’s Empowerment Project/Democracy Coffee
People Power Patchogue
Persist81
Progressive Action of Lower Manhattan
Progressive East End Reformers (PEER)
Progressive Power Inwood Heights
Progressive Schenectady
Progressive Turnout Project
Public Citizen
Putnam Progressives
Rally+Rise
Reinvent Albany
RepresentUs
Resist and Replace, Suffolk County
Riverside Edgecombe Neighborhood Association
Rockland United
RWDSU
Sierra Club Atlantic Chapter
Small Planet Institute
Solidarity Committee/Capital District
Stand Up America
St Nicks Alliance
Strong Economy For All Coalition
Suffolk Progressives
Sunrise NYC
Tenants and Neighbors
Tenants Political Action Committee
True Blue New York
Ulster People for Justice & Democracy
Union Vale Indivisible
Up2Us
Uptown Progressive Action
Washington County Progressives
We of Action New York
Westchester Citizen Therapists
Westchester for Change
Working Families Party

Don’t Make Me Laugh

David Posnett — Thu, 13 Sep 2018 14:41:01 +0000

By Perry Gershon:

Lee Zeldin wants you to think he’s an environmentalist. He’s spending big bucks blasting that absurd idea across Long Island television.

Don’t make me laugh.

In his four years in Congress, Lee has voted against the environment over and over again. He’s taken tens of thousands of dollars from the oil and gas industry to prop up his campaign.

It’s no wonder Lee opposed protecting the environment on 21 out of 22 votes.

Lee opposed seven bills on air quality protections.

He opposed protections for clean water 19 different times.

He opposed protecting wildlife eight times.

And he continues to stand by a president who insists climate change is a Chinese hoax.

Get the idea? Lee Zeldin is no friend of the environment, of clear air and water, or protecting our planet for future generations.

Long Island voters have a clear choice in November.

I promise to work tirelessly to protect the environment – whether that be our clear air, clean water, clean energy production, or protecting wildlife.

Lee’s record is clear, and that’s just another reason why he has to go.

Donate $5 right now. Let’s show Zeldin we won’t stand for his hypocrisy on the environment.

Posts on R&R (since July 2018) related to Zeldin’s environmental record:

Zeldin’s Environmental Voting Record Goes from Bad to Worse

Posted on August 28, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

Lee Zeldin wants to Drill in the Ironwood Forest National Monument By Marc Rauch: Latest update: Zeldin’s Environmental Voting Record Goes from Bad to Worse in 2018 In the first 3 years of Lee Zeldin’s congressional term (2015-2017), he earned … Continue reading →

Posted in climate change, Environment, EPA, Executive Order, GOP, National Parks & Monuments, Trump, Uncategorized, water quality, Zeldin | Tagged Environment, lee zeldin, voting record | 2 Comments | Edit

Zeldin’s War on the Environment

Posted on August 20, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

By Perry Gershon: (Source: https://www.facebook.com/pg/perry4congress/posts/?ref=page_internal) Lee Zeldin continues to support the Trump Administration’s destruction of our environmental protections. The new “plan” for coal represents one more example of the total disregard for the serious health effects of air pollution. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Air Pollution, Environment, Trump, Uncategorized, water quality, Zeldin | Tagged car emission, clean air, clean water, pollution | 2 Comments | Edit

Is Lee Zeldin Really “Good On The Environment”?

Posted on January 19, 2018 by francescarh

A slickly produced mailer from Lee Zeldin appeared in my mailbox this week. It touted our Congressman’s supposed record in “safeguarding our environment.” Mr. Zeldin has been very adept in pulling the wool over voters’ eyes about his actual environmental … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment | Edit

Zeldin Boasting about Environment Record?

Posted on January 2, 2018 by maidstonejewelry

Recently Congressman Lee Zeldin (R, NY-1), co-chair of the Long Island Sound Caucus and founding member of the “Congressional Estuary Caucus”, was joined by EPA Regional Administrator Pete Lopez, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Regional Director Carrie Meek … Continue reading →

Posted in climate change, Environment, EPA, Paris Climate Accord, Uncategorized, Zeldin | 4 Comments | Edit

More Bad Zeldin Environmental Votes

Posted on October 12, 2017 by D. Posnett MD

By Marc Rauch and Chelsea Estevez Since our last update in late August, fourteen bills impacting the environment have come before the House of Representatives. Lee Zeldin took the anti-environment position on 12 out of 14 of these recent bills. … Continue reading →

Posted in climate change, Environment, EPA, Paris Climate Accord, Trump, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged environmental justice, EPA, fracking, methane, ocean, public land | Leave a comment | Edit

Complete Lee Zeldin Environmental Voting Record

Posted on July 2, 2017 by D. Posnett MD

A great resource! D Posnett Marc Rauch·Friday, June 23, 2017 Complete Lee Zeldin Environmental Voting Record (Last Updated 6/29/17) Introduction Linked here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19e5j3Z3xupufWNReLsO-P69eL316sJDLBbf8EZDFklg/edit?usp=sharing is an easy-to-use Excel spreadsheet summarizing Lee Zeldin’s complete environmental voting record in Congress. Purpose This spreadsheet … Continue reading →

Posted in Air Pollution, climate change, Environment, EPA, National Parks & Monuments, Offshore Drilling, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged energy, Environment, record, wind, Zeldin | 2 Comments | Edit

Lee Zeldin’s Duplicity on Environmental Issues

Posted on March 7, 2017 by D. Posnett MD

Marc Rauch, from Bellport, New York. had the following letter in the March 2, 2017 edition of the Long Island Advance: I was taken aback by Rep. Lee Zeldin’s “official positions” on protection of the environment, as reported last week … Continue reading →

Posted in Environment, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged duplicity, Environment, pollution, Zeldin | 1 Comment | Edit

Zeldin & Environment?

Posted on February 19, 2017 by D. Posnett MD

My letter to editor of LI Advance was published this week- 2/16/2017 Voting to loosen standards on oil and gas industries Where is Congressman Zeldin on the environment? Two weeks ago I visited Congressman Zeldin’s office to talk with a … Continue reading →

Posted in Environment, Uncategorized | Tagged Environment, Zeldin | 5 Comments | Edit

Flip the House — Defeat Zeldin!

Posted on August 4, 2018 by amyturner2000

By Jacquelyn Gavron & Amy Turner, July 19, 2018 New York’s First Congressional District (NY-1), historically a swing district, is represented by Lee Zeldin (R). He was initially elected with Tea Party support and is an unwavering Trump loyalist with … Continue reading →

Posted in ACA, AHCA, economy, Environment, Guns, Health Care, Politics, Tax Reform, Uncategorized, Women, Zeldin | 3 Comments | Edit

Moral Obligation to send Zeldin packing

Posted on July 19, 2018 by D. Posnett MD

Published in the East Hampton Star – the July 10, 2018 To the Editor: Offered less than 10 days into our district’s 133-day congressional race, The Star’s advice to local Democrats (“First District Dilemma”) is not only premature, but also … Continue reading →

Posted in perry gershon, Uncategorized, Zeldin | Tagged David Rattray, democratic, gershon, Star, turnout | Leave a comment | Edit

Moral Obligation to send Zeldin packing

David Posnett — Thu, 19 Jul 2018 00:56:18 +0000

Published in the East Hampton Star – the July 10, 2018

To the Editor:

Offered less than 10 days into our district’s 133-day congressional race, The Star’s advice to local Democrats (“First District Dilemma”) is not only premature, but also misguided. As the 2016 presidential election (painfully) demonstrated, a race can turn around in the final weeks. But more important, the editorial ignores voter turnout — a key component to winning midterm elections in this swing district (which has been represented by Democrats for 40 of the last 57 years). There are already very encouraging signs that once again New York District 1 Democrats have the momentum and enthusiasm that generate winning turnouts in November. For example:

1. Democratic turnout in the June 26 primary was up 76 percent from the last primary.

2. In an online one-day fund-raiser for Perry Gershon, New York 1 grass-roots groups raised more than $50,000 in donations ranging from $20 to $2,700 (the maximum allowable).

3. Within days of the primary, hundreds of people had volunteered to work for Gershon, and more are signing up each day.

Furthermore, Zeldin is hardly behaving like a candidate who is certain of victory. Within hours after Gershon’s nomination, Zeldin started the preferred Trump tactic of name-calling rather than touting his own voting record. Why? Because Zeldin knows his policy positions are unpopular in this district: repealing Obamacare, opposing common-sense gun-safety measures, and supporting the dismantling of Environmental Protection Agency regulations, to name just a few. And it was hardly a show of confidence when Zeldin’s staff (in further echoes of Trump) forcibly removed local press from the campaign’s kickoff event, which was headlined by Sebastian Gorka. (Star readers unfamiliar with Gorka will learn much from Helen Rattray’s column, “Bad Company,” which appeared opposite the editorial referred to in this letter and which states, “Our congressman has become extraordinarily buddy-buddy with radicals and extremists of the ultra-right, bigoted wing of his party.”)

Although the editorial suggests that local Democrats should focus elsewhere, it is worth remembering that we, the voters of New York 1, are responsible for sending to Congress a right-wing extremist who allies himself with Trump, Gorka, and Bannon rather than the values upon which this nation was founded. In my view, we voters have a moral obligation to do all we can to support Perry Gershon and send Zeldin packing!

Yours truly,

AMY TURNER

The All-important Numbers for NY CD-1

David Posnett — Tue, 30 Jan 2018 05:23:45 +0000

Let’s look at the important numbers in NY CD-1.

Demographics:

Table I (Source: Ballotpedia, based on 2010 census)

Population	720,071
Gender	49.6% Male, 50.4% Female
Race	87.7% White, 4.6% Black, 3.5% Asian
Ethnicity	12.8% Hispanic
Unemployment	6.60%
Median household income	$83,144

Nearly 20% are minorities (Black, Asian, or Hispanic). Some Hispanics will call themselves “racially” white, but claim hispanic ethnicity.

Lesson: Don’t count on a huge minority vote because of disgust in Trump’s racial bigotry and Zeldin’s backing of Trump.

Party Affiliation:

Source: https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/enrollment/congress/congress_nov12.pdf

Table II

	raw numbers	percentages
Dems	143,917	30.4
Reps	162,212	34.3
Cons	11,806	2.5
Ind	23,215	4.9
Blank	125,516	26.6
Other	5,985	1.3

Total	472,651	100

Assuming equal voter turn out for each party, and assuming that ‘Independants’, ‘Blanks’ and ‘Other’ break out 50/50 for the Dem versus Rep candidate, Dems can not win.

Assuming all Dems vote Dem and all Reps vote Rep, we still need about 30,000 votes from the Ind, Blanks, Other. And perhaps those 30,000 votes could include some from the Rep/Cons group.

Lesson: This has long been the main point of Tim Bishop whenever he speaks: Dems cannot win in CD-1 with out help from those registered in the red, purple or blank parties.

Voter Turnout

Many are quick to claim that we can win with a high Dem turn out. The so called blue wave expected for 2018. But let’s look seriously at the data. It is the data from prior elections. Ofcourse you can claim that in the Trump era nothing from the past applies. But this is all we have got. So lets look at it.

Table III (Source: Ballotpedia )

Column 1 lists the races going back to 2008.

Column 2 tallies the vote numbers for the Dem candidate

Column 3 tallies the vote numbers for the Rep candidate

Column 4 tallies the total votes cast (some voters did not vote for either R or D candidate): notice the much lower numbers for midterm elections in 2010 and 2014.

Column 5 lists the difference between the total votes for D and R candidates: notice the trend from positive numbers (Dem majority) to negative numbers (Rep majority). Our district is becoming more and more red.

Column 6 is the vote percentage of total registered voters that went to the Dem candidate*

Column 7 is the vote percentage of total registered voters that went to the Rep candidate*

* these numbers are calculated as the votes obtained by the Dem (or Rep) candidate per total number of registered voters. 472,651 is the current number of registered voters. This does not equal the turnout within the Dem party or within the Rep party, because f.ex. an undetermined number of U (unaffiliated) would also have voted for either D or R candidate.

Note also the low numbers for the Dems in 2010 and 2014, suggesting that Dem voters did not vote (low turnout) in those years.

I have made some assumptions, see ‘Assumed 2018’, in Table III:

Dem vote numbers and Rep vote numbers might be similar to 2010
Dem turnout conservatively estimated to be similar to 2010 (historically this is a high turnout for a midterm election) – however if a country wide blue wave materializes the turn out could be even better
I assumed a similar turnout of Rep voters to prior midterm elections, for example 2010. BUT this would mean that roughly half of the voters that voted for Trump/Zeldin in 2016 fail to turn out and vote in 2018. That is probably wishful thinking. National polls suggest that Trumps base is holding stead fast with 35-40% of Americans approving Trump’s performance. I would expect that to be true in CD-1 too. See also Marc Rauch’s comment below.
It is clear from these data that LZ needs his Rep. base to turn out in 2018 and this explains his current turn to the far right, his support for Trumps immigration hawks, like Chief of Staff Kelly, and Stephen Miller in the White house, and his position attacking the FBI along with Devon Nunez etc.
Here is another scenario proposed by Marc Rauch: The 2017 off-off-year elections saw a huge turnout (to some extent attributable to the Con/Con) just for a local election in an odd-numbered year. Democrats in Brookhaven Township rolled up impressive numbers (compared to 2015), but Republicans in Brookhaven Township rolled up even more impressive numbers (compared to 2015) and beat them solidly. This shows the Republican machine in Brookhaven Township is alive and well and this is where 63% of CD-1 voters are. So, 2018 may not be a sleepy off-year Congressional election. Republicans will fight tooth and nail and spend huge sums of money (remember why that tax bill had to pass) to keep control of both houses of Congress. Dems hopefully will fight just as hard or harder to grab the House or Senate and hopefully will be reasonably well-funded. An enormous amount of attention will be focused on the November elections nationally, and it will be more like a presidential election year than an off year in terms of turnout. The bottom line is, assume high turnout for both Dems and Reps. The fight will be over who can get most of those in the middle to break their way. If this scenario proves correct, we will need 30,000 crossover votes as described above (see Table II).

Bottom line: this will not be a cakewalk.