voter registration – R&R – Reachout and Rebuild

#Votebymail

David Posnett — Tue, 21 Apr 2020 16:46:54 +0000

The 2020 election season moves onward and, across America, people have been asked to either put their health at risk thanks to this pandemic—or not vote.

That’s completely inexcusable. In this time of crisis, we have to protect our health AND protect our democracy.

As New Yorkers, and especially as Long Islanders, we know exactly how important this is.

The solution is simple: nationwide #votebymail.

Sign the petition: urge Congress to take action on vote-by-mail right now.

There is no good reason to delay taking action. Not one.

Voting by mail is safe, secure, and proven. It would allow Americans to exercise their most fundamental democratic rights, all while helping flatten this pandemic’s infection curve by staying home.

This is critical for vulnerable populations – our seniors, Americans with compromised immune systems, workers who have lost their health care – Americans who deserve a voice and a vote, no matter what. Vote-by-mail is also critical for heroes on the front lines – doctors, nurses, biomedical researchers – who shouldn’t be asked to leave work to stand in line at polling places.

Unfortunately, this has become a partisan fight. Donald Trump has even suggested that he’d prefer having fewer voters vote:

“They had levels of voting, that if you ever agreed to it you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”

A president of the United States… actually downplaying our civic duty. Unbelievable. And you can bet that Rep. Lee Zeldin is doing nothing to stand up for democracy.

Congress must act immediately to require states to make voting from home easier and to provide the funds to make it happen. In Congress, I will always put democracy first.

Perry Gershon

Best Bang for your Buck

David Posnett — Tue, 22 Oct 2019 23:38:57 +0000

Subject: the best bang for your political donation bucks just now

Some of you have heard me give this spiel, but for some of you, it will be new.

As part of a group that hears reports from national Democratic organizers every few weeks, i was particularly taken with a presentation a few weeks ago by a group at Stanford called Mind The Gap that has analyzed more data about registration/voting patterns than seems possible. And their conclusion – to be brief – is that from now until a few months before the 2020 election, support for non-partisan registration in key neighborhoods in key states will do more for the Democrats from top to bottom of the ticket than any other donation.

How is that possible? The Democrats need numbers. Not just the 75,000 or so more votes that would have changed the last election, but possibly up to a million new voters because lots of people seem to be energized by national politics right now, and Republican turnout is expected to hit new highs.

Registration-seeking organizations that set up in neighborhoods where there are large numbers of non-registered but presumed Democratic-leaning folks, that are manned by people who look like their neighbors (not like you and me) are proven to be the most effective way to encourage new registrants. And here is the insight from Mind the Gap: It doesn’t matter if some of them sign up as Republicans! The numbers will be overwhelmingly Democratic, and once they’ve registered, other organizations can follow up to see that they vote. That follow-up is important, but not until much closer to the election.

One of the best groups that are set up to do this kind of community-based registration is called the Voter Participation Center. Based in DC, but actively working with local groups across the country.

I’ve just sent them all the money I was planning to send to various candidates in 2019. I urge you to go to their website: www.voterparticipation.org and send what you can. And, remember, because they are non-partisan, your donation is tax-deductible!

Thanks for considering this.

Best, Marilyn (forwarded by Alice Tepper Marlin)

The Blue Wave in CD-1

David Posnett — Sat, 06 Oct 2018 22:34:33 +0000

I have always wanted to know whether our efforts of canvassing and voter registration are actually paying off!

Now we have some data. Suffolk County Board of Elections collects data on new voter registrations on a monthly basis. I have compared data published in Feb 2018 with data published on October 1st 2018. New Voter registrations are definitely up (Fig. 1). And it turns out that they are heavily skewed towards Dem. party registration (see Fig. 2). The numbers are actually about 2x higher than in comparable midterm election years from the past. This bodes well for a “blue wave”.

Fig. 1. Data on new voter registrations for Feb 2018 (light blue) versus October 2018 (dark blue).

Fig. 2. New voter registrations are heavily skewed towards the Dem. party, data from October 2018. Not shown are percentages of C, II, WP, U, etc.

These numbers have to be considered in the context of general population changes. It turns out that the general population in Suffolk County has been shrinking steadily. For the period of 2/2018 to 10/2018 the numbers are:

Date 2/2018 10/2018

Suffolk 961,409 954,150 -0.76%

NY-CD1 472,989 470,344 -0.56%

NY-CD2 320,104 316,739 -1.05%

NY-CD3 168,316 167,067 -0.74%

This mirrors a similar decrease in the total population comparing 2015 to 2016 (-0.76%) and 2016 to 2017 (-0.6%). There are still more births than deaths, and more international arrivals than domestic arrivals. Thus, the decrease in the population on eastern Long Island is most likely due to young people leaving Suffolk county, a well-recognised phenomenon. Are these young people that are leaving Suffolk, mainly democrats? Are they being replaced by newly registered people that are also mainly democrats? If this were the case the overall percentages of people in the Dem party would not have changed much. But the data show that the Dem party has been growing faster than any other party in NY CD-1.

Here are the numbers of total registered Dem and Rep voters in NY CD-1 from 2012 and from Oct 2018:

Date 2012 10/2018

Dem 132,683 144,211 +8.7%

Rep 156,075 159,184 +1.99%

All voters 445,374 470,344 +5.61%

Comparing data for all political party registrations between 2012 and 2018, Dems are up +8.7%, Rep +1.99%, Con -2.13%, Indep +5.95%, Unaffiliated +5.32%, Working families -0.32%.

Sources:

Voter reg Oct 2018

https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/enrollment/congress/congress_nov12.pdf

https://resistancesuffolk.blog/2018/02/08/new-registrations-favor-dems-in-cd-1/